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城镇住房供求关系紧张、成套住房总量不足是当前住房发展面临的主要矛盾,住房价格过快上涨削弱了城镇收入较低群体的住房支付能力,特别是新移民成为城镇住房最困难的群体。住房政策的制定应当建立在正确判断住房矛盾的基础上,处理好政府履行公共服务职能与住房市场化、消费属性与投资属性、社会功能与经济功能的关系。就住房而言,其政策导向应该是:综合运用土地、财税、信贷政策,增加城镇住房(含保障房)供应,稳定住房市场价格,引导和治理住房需求,促进住有所居目标的实现和宏观经济的平稳运行。

本文通过对中华人民共和国成立后单位住房福利制度形成住房商品化萌芽、住房全面商品化、保障性住房制度建设启动四个阶段的梳理，分析了促使中国住房体系从特殊的单位住房福利制度走向住房市场经济主线与住房社会保障主线整合发展的政策演变机制。本文指出，住房制度改革促进了社区类型与城市空间结构的分化；作为一项关系民生的重要社会政策，住房保障覆盖面已从本地居民扩展到包括流动人口在内的新市民群体。研究表明，建立住房结构与社会分层之间的影像关联，突破户籍壁垒，建立发展型住房保障体系，是促进社会包容性发展的重要标志。

住房权是公民的基本权利,从居民住房权所包含的内容看,一国居民住房问题的解决需要政府履行相关责任。本文介绍了美、德、新三国住房市场现状和住房市场发展模式,并对各国政府在居民住房权保障中承担的责任进行了分析,指出了当前我国政府在居民住房权保障中应承担的相关责任。

本文首先定性地比较了各地房价的波动,发现其波动具有明显的地区不平衡性。进一步,本文基于误差修正模型形式的paneldata模型讨论了房价区域波动的差异,并分析了造成各地区房价波动差异的原因,尤其是货币政策效应的区域差异。结论如下:无论是房价的长期趋势还是短期波动,信贷规模对东、西部地区影响都比较大,中部地区较小,表明政府实施的信贷政策对调控东、西部地区的房价是有效的。实际利率对各区域影响差异不大,且影响较小。人均GDP无论长期还是短期对中部地区房价影响都比较大,表明中部地区房地产市场的发展更多地依赖于该地区的经济发展状况。房价的预期变量在东部地区对房价的短期波动有较大影响。

在我国,由于微观家庭数据的缺乏,我们对中国家庭资产缺乏了解。2011年,中国家庭金融调查与研究中心对随机抽取的位于25个省、80个县、320个社区的8438户家庭进行访问,获得了中国首个关于家庭金融的微观调查数据,填补了此领域的数据空白。根据此数据,在调查时点中国家庭总资产均值为121.7万元,中位数为20.3万元。城市家庭总资产均值为247.6万元,中位数为40.5万元。同时,中国家庭资产的分布严重不均衡,仅14.30%的城市家庭与21.3%的农村家庭资产超过相应的均值。中部、西部地区家庭户均资产仅为东部地区家庭的14.2%和12.1%。房产作为家庭资产的重要组成部分,从长远来看,房价下跌是难以避免的。根据数据推算,现有城镇家庭住房的刚性需求为6459万套,城镇地区的房屋供给约为4046万套,缺口为2413万套。以目前的产能,不到两年时间就能满足现有家庭的刚性需求。就长期而言,房地产行业主要满足新增的住房需求。每年新增需求约为579万套,也只是现在房地产产能的1/3。

Data from downtown Boston in the 1990s show that loss aversion determines seller behavior in the housing market. Condominium owners subject to nominal losses 1) set higher asking prices of 25-35 percent of the difference between the property's expected selling price and their original purchase price; 2) attain higher selling prices of 3-18 percent of that difference; and 3) exhibit a much lower sale hazard than other sellers. The list price results are twice as large for owner-occupants as investors, but hold for both. These findings are consistent with prospect theory and help explain the positive price-volume correlation in real estate markets.

In this essay, we review the basic economics of housing supply and the functioning of US housing markets to better understand the distribution of home prices, household wealth and the spatial distribution of people across markets. We employ a cost-based approach to gauge whether a housing market is delivering appropriately priced units. Specifically, we investigate whether market prices (roughly) equal the costs of producing the housing unit. If so, the market is wellfunctioning in the sense that it efficiently delivers housing units at their production cost. Of course, poorer households still may have very high housing cost burdens that society may wish to address via transfers. But if housing prices are above this cost in a given area, then the housing market is not functioning well--and housing is too expensive for all households in the market, not just for poorer ones. The gap between price and production cost can be understood as a regulatory tax, which might be efficiently incorporating the negative externalities of new production, but typical estimates find that the implicit tax is far higher than most reasonable estimates of those externalities. Edward Glaeser Department of Economics 315A Littauer Center Harvard University Cambridge, MA 02138 and NBER eglaeser@harvard.edu Joseph Gyourko University of Pennsylvania The Wharton School of Business 3620 Locust Walk 1480 Steinberg-Dietrich Hall Philadelphia, PA 19104-6302 and NBER gyourko@wharton.upenn.edu

This paper studies household beliefs during the recent US housing boom. The first part presents evidence from the Michigan Survey of Consumers. To characterize the heterogeneity in households' views about housing and the economy, we perform a cluster analysis on survey responses at different stages of the boom. The estimation always finds a small cluster of households who believe it is a good time to buy a house because house prices will rise further. The size of this "momentum" cluster doubled towards the end of the boom. The second part of the paper provides a simple search model of the housing market to show how a small number of optimistic investors can have a large effect on prices without buying a large share of the housing stock. Monika Piazzesi Department of Economics Stanford University 579 Serra Mall Stanford, CA 94305-6072 and NBER piazzesi@stanford.edu Martin Schneider Research Department Stanford University 579 Serra Mall Stanford, CA 94305-6072 and NBER schneidr@stanford.edu

This paper reviews trends in housing affordability in the U.S. over the past four decades. There is little evidence that owner-occupied housing has become less affordable. In contrast, there have been modest increases in the fraction of income that the median renter household devotes to housing. We find pronounced increases in the rent burdens for poor households. We explore the low-income rental market in more detail, analyzing the relative importance of changes in the income distribution, in housing quality, land use regulation, and zoning in affecting rent burdens. We also sketch out some policies that might improve housing affordability.

Hedonic Prices and ImplicitMarkets: Product Differentiationin Pure Competition SherwinRosen UniversitoyfRochestearndHarvardUniversity A classofdifferentiatepdroductsis completelydescribedby a vectorof objectivelymeasuredcharacteristicsO.bservedproductpricesand the specificamountsofcharacteristicasssociatedwitheach good definea set ofimplicitor "hedonic"prices.A theoryofhedonicpricesis formulated as a problemin theeconomicsofspatialequilibriumin whichtheentire set of implicitprices guides both consumerand producerlocational decisionsin characteristicsspace. Buyerand sellerchoices,as wellas the meaningand natureof marketequilibrium,are analyzed. Empirical implicationsfor hedonic price regressionsand index number constructionare pointedout. I. Introduction and Summary This paper sketches a model of product differentiationbased on the hedonic hypothesisthat goods are valued for their utility-bearingattributes or characteristics. Hedonic prices are defined as the implicit prices of attributesand are revealed to economic agents fromobserved prices of differentiatedproducts and the specific amounts of characteristicsassociated with them. They constitute the empirical magnitudes explained by the model. Econometrically, implicit prices are estimated by the firststep regressionanalysis (product price regressedon characteristics)in the construction of hedonic price indexes. With few exceptions, structural ThesubstancoefthispaperarosefromconversatiownsithH. GreggLewisseverayl ears ago.A multitudoefotherpeoplehavecontributeadviceandcriticismA.mongthemare WilliamBrockS,tanleyEngermanR,oberJt .GordonZ,viGrilichesR,obertE. Lucas,Jr., MichaelMussa,andtherefereeR.emainingerrorasremyownresponsibilitFyin. ancial supportfromtheCenterforNavalAnalysiasnd theNationalInstitutoefEducationis gratefulalycknowledged. 34

This critical commentary confronts and explores the so far under-recognised and under-researched emergent global crisis of urban housing affordability and affordable housing provision. This crisis results from the fact that housing-related household expenses are rising faster than salary and wage increases in many urban centres around the world; a situation triggered by at least three global post-Global Financial Crisis megatrends of accelerated (re)urbanisation of capital and people, the provision of cheap credit and the rise of intra-society inequality. Reflecting on the recent findings of extensive comparative ethnographic research across Western countries, and analytically approaching housing affordability and affordable housing issues from a broadly understood intersection of political and economic spheres (e.g. issues of state and market, governance and regulation, policy and investment), the paper pursues four key objectives: raising awareness of the crisis, showing its extent and context-specificity but also the severe social as well as problematic spatial implications, linking current developments to key academic debates in housing studies and urban studies, and importantly, developing a research agenda that can help to redress the currently detectable `policyoutcome' gap in policy making by asking fresh and urgent questions from empirical, theoretical and political viewpoints. This intervention ultimately calls for more dedicated and politicised knowledge production towards achieving affordable urban futures for all.

城市辖区合并是优化城市功能布局的重大行政区划调整。城市辖区合并如何影响房地产市场和经济基本面的区域一体化,两者之间有怎样的联系机制,过去文献对此罕有涉及。本文构建了房地产市场和经济基本面相互联动的一般均衡模型,解释了城市辖区合并通过影响经济集聚和公共产品区域一体化,进而影响区域房地产市场一体化的机制。本文利用独特的真实二手房交易数据,以及上海市静安区和闸北区合并的准实验,通过双重差分和精确断点回归检验了区域房地产市场的一体化效应。两区合并后房地产市场短期内三个维度的区域一体化效果表现为:与非合并区域相比,新静安区整体房价上升了2.39%;较落后的原闸北区房价上升了4.98%且影响持续扩张,较发...

房地产市场作为重要的资产市场易受意外事件的冲击影响。1997年以来，中国经历了四次重要的外部事件冲击，而此期间中国的房地产市场却从开始建立，经过加速发展，不断走向成熟。研究发现：基于中国房地产市场潜力仍有待释放的前提背景下，外部冲击事件虽然给中国房地产市场带来一定波动和分化，但并未改变长期发展趋势，而且还会加速中国房地产市场的发展；宽松的货币政策环境在应对外部冲击上发挥着关键性作用，也成为房地产市场持续繁荣的重要支撑因素。未来房地产市场应该在维持稳健性政策调控的过程中深化制度改革，同时房地产市场应该回归居住属性，更要防止过度金融化。

本文利用协整分析和H-P滤波,计算了房地产均衡价格水平,以及房地产价格偏离均衡价格的波动状态,得出结论:我国房地产市场价格的偏离只是受部分地区的影响,即存在“局部泡沫”。为了进一步刻画房地产市场与宏观经济之间的互动关系,本文建立了变参数模型和向量自回归模型,结果表明:在近年来两者之间互动关系有一个结构性的变化,由于利率缺乏弹性,通过利率来调控房地产市场,成效不大,但是信贷规模的变化对房地产投资有较大的影响。脉冲响应函数的结果表明:房地产投资的冲击对经济增长具有长期影响,而且对相关行业的拉动作用也比较大。

本文利用 1 995— 2 0 0 2年我国 1 4城市的中房住宅价格指数与宏观经济基本面相关变量的平行数据 ,运用混合样本回归以及添加城市、年度哑变量等分析方法 ,对住宅价格与经济基本面的关系进行实证研究。研究结果表明 ,1 4城市经济基本面的当前信息或历史信息都可以部分解释住宅价格水平或者变化率 ,我国住宅市场并不符合有效市场假说。经济基本面对住宅价格水平的解释模型存在着显著的城市影响特征 ,1 998年后经济基本面对住宅价格的解释能力发生了显著的变化 ,且这种变化在 2 0 0 1— 2 0 0 2年间尤其明显。近年来各城市住宅价格的增长已经无法很好地用经济基本面和住宅价格的历史信息来解释 ,必须引起政府和行业的足够重视。

房地产业历来是各国政府在通货紧缩或通货膨胀阶段进行宏观调控所首先指向的产业之一 ,而促进或抑制房地产业的政策给其他相关产业乃至整个宏观经济所造成的影响则取决于房地产业与其他产业的带动效应。本文借助投入产出模型对我国及美、日、英、澳 4个发达国家房地产业与其密切关联产业的关联度进行前向、后向、环向等不同层面量化研究 ,通过国际和国内地区比较 ,分析房地产业与其相关产业关联关系的变化规律、房地产业对相关产业的带动效应及我国房地产业发展中存在的主要问题

1998年城镇住房制度改革以来,中国居民的住房问题主要通过购房来解决,租赁市场发展相对滞缓。十九大以来,国家高度重视住房租赁市场发展,采取了一系列政策措施。但从现实看,住房租赁市场发展仍面临诸多体制机制和政策困境。本文在分析中国住房租赁市场现状的基础上,指出了租赁房源供给与需求不匹配、机构化发展不充分、市场秩序混乱、立法滞缓等六方面困境,最后提出建立完善相关配套制度和政策的建议。

2003年以来,中国城市房地产销售价格相对租赁价格的更快上涨,形成了城市房价租金"剪刀差",使房价泡沫固化。针对中国城市房价租金"剪刀差"之谜,本文从居民住房买租选择机制入手构建了购房者与租房者的住房消费选择模型,运用2000—2010年中国35个大中城市的面板数据和动态面板系统GMM估计方法做了实证检验。研究发现,由于居民住房买租选择更倾向于购房居住,促使城市房价租金比升高。在适应性预期下,房价租金比下降;在理性预期下,房价租金比上升。城市居民收入差距扩大是引发城市房价租金比升高的主要因素。在所有影响因素中,居民人均可支配收入的变化对城市房价租金比变动的影响力最大。因此,完善收入分配制度和不断降低收入差距,加强房价预期管理,大力培育住房租赁市场,引导居民住房理性消费,抑制房地产投资和投机需求,是降低城市房价租金比,防止房价泡沫膨胀和破灭的重要措施。

住房制度改革以来,我国住房租售市场发展不平衡,住房租赁市场一直处于落后状况。伴随国家"十三五规划"提出以建立租购并举的住房制度为主要方向深化住房制度改革,2017年广州、上海等城市相继出台"租购同权"建设的相关文件以促进"租售并举",引发社会各界广泛讨论。本文从我国住房租赁市场的现状出发,针对我国住房租售市场发展不平衡的问题,分析其产生的具体原因;同时总结国际经验,发现规范完备的法律体系、严格的承租人保护制度以及丰富的住房补贴政策是住房租赁市场发达的国家建设"租购同权"住房市场的重要举措。最后本文提出以"租购同权"作为突破口,促进"租售并举",从而建立住房租赁市场发展的长效机制的具体措施。

Housing wealth is about one half of household net worth, and consumption is a considerable fraction (about two thirds) of Gross Domestic Product in the United States. Empirically, movements in housing wealth are associated with movements in consumption in the same direction. This observation has led many economists, commentators and policy makers to study how housing wealth and consumption are linked together. A sizeable portion of the comovement between housing wealth and consumption reects common factors driving both variables, rather than the "wealth eect" of the former on the latter; however, a growing body of evidence suggests that the comovement is larger in developed ...nancial markets and in the presence of liquidity constraints.

,V7KHUHD%XEEOHLQWKH+RXVLQJ0DUNHW" .DUO(&DVH5REHUW-6KLOOHU Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2003, 2, pp. 299-362 (Article) 3XEOLVKHGE\%URRNLQJV,QVWLWXWLRQ3UHVV DOI: 10.1353/eca.2004.0004 For additional information about this article http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/eca/summary/v2003/2003.2case.html Access provided by New York University (4 Jun 2015 20:57 GMT)

Working Paper SerieS NO 15 4 4 / m ay 2013 House Prices, Home Equity and Entrepreneurships Stefano Corradin and Alexander Popov In 2013 all ECB publications feature a motif taken from the 5 banknote. NOTE: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB.

For many analysts, the Chinese economy is being spurred on by a bubble in the housing market, probably driven by the fiscal stimulus package and massive credit expansion, with potentially adverse effects on the real economy. The house price development is investigated by panel cointegration techniques. Evidence is based on a data-set for 35 major cities. Cointegration is detected between real house prices and a set of macroeconomic determinants. The results indicate that the bubble is less than 15 per cent of the equilibrium value implied by the fundamentals at the end of 2010. The bubble is particularly huge in the cities in the south-east coastal areas and special economic zones. While the spillovers from real house prices to consumer price index (CPI) inflation are significant at the margin, gross domestic product (GDP) growth may not be heavily affected. Thus, a decline of the bubble will likely have only modest effects on the real economy.

This work is part of the research programme of the independent UK Spatial Economics Research Centre funded by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC), Department for Business, Innovation and Skills (BIS), the Department for Communities and Local Government (CLG), and the Welsh Assembly Government. The support of the funders is acknowledged. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not represent the views of the funders. J. V. Duca, J. Muellbauer and A. Murphy, submitted 2011

We construct measures of the annual cost of single-family housing for 46 metropolitan areas in the United States over the last 25 years and compare them with local rents and incomes as a way of judging the level of housing prices. Conventional metrics like the growth rate of house prices, the price-to-rent ratio, and the price-to-income ratio can be misleading because they fail to account both for the time series pattern of real long-term interest rates and predictable differences in the long-run growth rates of house prices across local markets. These factors are especially important in recent years because house prices are theoretically more sensitive to interest rates when rates are already low, and more sensitive still in those cities where the long-run rate of house price growth is high. During the 1980s, our measures show that houses looked most overvalued in many of the same cities that subsequently experienced the largest house price declines. We find that from the trough of 1995 to 2004, the cost of owning rose somewhat relative to the cost of renting, but not, in most cities, to levels that made houses look overvalued. Charles Himmelberg Federal Reserve Bank of New York 33 Liberty Street New York, NY 10045 charles.himmelberg@ny.frb.org Christopher J. Mayer Columbia Business School 3022 Broadway, Uris Hall #808 New York, NY 10025 and NBER cm310@columbia.edu Todd M. Sinai University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School 1465 Steinberg Hall - Dietrich Hall 3620 Locust Walk Philadelphia, PA 19104-6302 and NBER sinai@wharton.upenn.edu

The main factors underlying the rise in mortgage defaults appear to be declines in house prices and deteriorated underwriting standards, in particular an increase in loan-to-value ratios and in the share of mortgages with little or no documentation of income. Contrary to popular perception, the growth in unconventional mortgages products, such as those with prepayment penalties, interest-only periods, and teaser interest rates, does not appear to be a significant factor in defaults through mid-2008 because borrowers who had problems with these products could refinance into different mortgages. However, as markets realized the extent of the poor underwriting, underwriting standards tightened and borrowers began to face difficulties refinancing; this dynamic suggests that these unconventional products could pose problems going forward.

The high and rising household savings rate in China is not easily reconciled with the traditional explanations that emphasize life cycle factors, the precautionary saving motive, financial development, or habit formation. This paper proposes a new competitive saving motive: as the sex ratio rises, Chinese parents with a son raise their savings in a competitive manner in order to improve their son's relative attractiveness for marriage. The pressure on savings spills over to other households. Both cross-regional and household-level evidence supports this hypothesis. This factor can potentially account for about half the actual increase in the household savings rate during 1990-2007.

运用中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)2011年、2013年和2015年数据,基于调查数据构建和计算城市房价收入比,分析房价收入比对家庭消费房产财富效应的影响,并进一步考察房价收入比对拥有两套及以上住房、有房出租、拥有大小产权房和不同收入阶层家庭消费房产财富效应的影响差异。研究发现:房价收入比高时家庭消费水平也相应较高,但房价收入比高却显著降低了家庭消费的房产财富弹性;拥有两套及以上住房、有房出租家庭消费的房产财富效应受房价收入比高的弱化影响更小,拥有大产权比小产权房更能抵御房价收入比高对消费房产财富效应的弱化影响,高收入家庭的抵御能力更强。

本文通过在模型中引入房地产业与其他产业之间的投入产出关系，研究中间品需求渠道及其乘数效应如何导致住房价格对经济增长产生倒U型的影响。本文的研究发现：引入投入产出关系不仅能够提高模型对中国经济的解释能力，而且会通过中间品需求渠道及其乘数效应导致稳态中住房价格与产出水平之间出现倒U型关系——当房价较低时，两个部门之间的投入产出关系使得中间品需求和最终品需求相互带动，导致住房价格上涨会拉动经济增长；但是，当房价超过某一个阈值时，房价上涨带来的中间品价格上涨和生产成本上升导致厂商降低产出水平和对中间品的需求，中间品需求渠道及其乘数效应开始发挥反向的作用，导致房价上涨会抑制经济增长。根据中间品需求渠道及其乘数效应，在房地产调控中一方面要充分发挥房地产业作为国民经济重要支柱产业的作用，将促进房地产市场平稳健康发展作为调控总基调，避免调控政策大起大落；另一方面要充分认识到房价上涨过快对经济增长的不利影响，坚决贯彻“房子是用来住的，不是用来炒的”调控原则，遏制房价过快上涨。

结合中国宏观住房价格和城镇住户调查(UHS)2002—2009年微观调查数据,本文研究住房价格上涨对消费不平等的影响,探讨房价上涨的社会福利后果。研究发现,房价上涨主要抑制了低消费家庭的消费,是中国消费不平等扩大的重要推动力。其作用机制是"财富效应"和"挤出效应":房价上涨对无房户消费的抑制作用最大,对拥有1套房家庭的消费也有显著负面影响,只有拥有多套房且人均面积很大的家庭才能享受房价上涨的"财富效应"。

本文考察租售比、空置率、投资购房与自住购房之比、房地产贷款占比和房地产业利润率等学术界和业界通常用来度量住房市场泡沫水平的指标的适用性,认为由于我国客观条件的制约,这些指标都不适合作为判断我国城市住房市场泡沫水平的直接、准确指标,直接、准确指标是房价收入比。依据我国房价收入比合理上限的模型,并基于我国当前城镇居民平均消费倾向、按揭贷款利率水平、按揭贷款占主导地位的期限和首付款比例区间,推导出当前我国城市居民理论上能承受的房价收入比的合理上限约在4.38—6.78倍之间。近年来我国城市住房市场总体存在泡沫、部分城市泡沫较大,部分一线城市泡沫惊人、蕴含巨大金融风险。在此基础上,本文提出了政策建议。

自20世纪90年代末以来,中国经历了一段房价持续高速增长的时期。在中国家庭自有住房率超过百分之八十的背景下,长期的房价上涨必然会影响家庭内部的投资、消费和创业等一系列决策行为。本文通过构建一个职业选择模型,将房价上涨对人们的创业行为的影响分离成"财富效应"、"信贷效应"以及"替代效应"。基于该模型,本文发现房价上涨对无房人群和有房人群的创业决策存在不同的影响,并进一步探讨了家庭财产、是否有房以及住房按揭贷款对创业决策的影响。本文进而利用微观数据对理论模型推导出的各个推论进行了检验。通过对创业的关注,本文指出了中国的高房价可能影响长期经济增长的一个重要渠道。

由于对国民经济具有明显的乘数带动效应,因此房地产业既可以拉动经济增长,也可能导致经济过热,进而常常成为政府宏观调控的首选对象和是否成功的主要标志之一。本文对中国房地产市场发展概况进行了简要分析,介绍了有关泡沫的经济学基本理论和研究,以及中国房地产市场是否存在泡沫的争论。在此基础上,本文重新定义了房地产基本价值、投机泡沫和泡沫度,并利用中国房地产的相关数据,对中国房地产基本价值、投机泡沫和泡沫度进行了实际计算,得出了中国房地产泡沫已经产生、而且比较严重的结论,并解释了中国房地产投机泡沫产生的主要原因。最后,提出了挤出房地产泡沫的若干政策,并特别指出,地方政府对中央政府的有关政策能否“上令下达,不打埋伏”是挤出房地产市场泡沫的关键所在。

近几年中国出现了家庭债务持续增长和经济增速放缓的现象,如何处理家庭债务与宏观经济之间的关系成为当前宏观调控面临的重要问题。本文通过构建家庭对住房具有低风险厌恶偏好特征且多部门同时存在金融摩擦的动态随机一般均衡模型,探究了中国家庭债务对宏观经济的影响机制。研究发现:第一,在居民对住房低风险厌恶的偏好下,家庭债务扩张促进住房需求增加过程中住房的边际效用缓慢下降,导致家庭对住房需求保持强劲态势并带来房价上涨,房价上涨又通过住房抵押渠道促进家庭债务进一步扩张,使得家庭债务与房价之间形成闭环正反馈机制。第二,在房地产价格渠道的传导下,家庭债务扩张挤出居民消费、企业信贷供给和生产投资,引起宏观经济波动。第三,受信贷市场顺周期性的影响,居民部门贷款价值比越高,家庭债务和宏观经济之间的联动幅度越大,因此抑制家庭部门加杠杆能够平抑由家庭债务扩张引起的经济波动。

在构建以国内大循环为主体,国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局下,把握扩大内需这一战略基点,激发居民消费潜力,是推动经济高质量发展的关键之一。住房已经成为中国家庭财富的重要组成部分,一方面可通过财富效应促进家庭消费,另一方面也可能由于"房奴效应"降低家庭消费。因此,住房财富对家庭消费的影响方向并不确定。本文基于2013-2019年中国家庭金融调查数据,研究了住房财富对家庭消费的影响,并检验了住房财富影响家庭消费的可能渠道。研究发现,住房财富对城镇家庭消费有显著促进作用,并显著改善了家庭消费结构,住房资产具有财富效应。进一步研究发现,住房财富能够缓解流动性约束,从而提高家庭消费水平。异质性分析表明,住房财富对不同类型的消费具有不同的促进作用,不同地区和拥有住房数量的差别均会对住房财富产生不同影响。根据本文研究,在控制风险的前提下,可发挥既有住房财富对平滑家庭消费的积极作用,促进家庭消费增长,改善家庭消费结构,进一步推进家庭消费升级。

基于全国范围的调查数据和省级层面数据,本文实证分析了住房价格对居民风险偏好的影响,发现房价水平和房价上涨都显著提高居民的风险偏好。具体而言,在房价水平高、房价增幅大的地区,居民的主观风险偏好态度和客观风险偏好行为显著提高;当居民没有住房贷款、对房屋具有完全产权时,房价对居民的风险偏好影响更强;居民健康状况和拥有房屋数量对房价与居民风险偏好关系的调节效应相对较弱;区域性住房价格与居民股市参与度的关系,也进一步表明住房价格能显著提高居民的风险偏好。

根据人口结构变化来研究房地产市场走向一直被视为住房需求评估的基本方法。在此基础上,本文利用面板数据和地理加权回归模型对中国城市住房需求的影响因素、时空效应以及未来的总体走势进行了综合考察。研究结论认为,城市的常住人口和流动人口数量、居民的收入分配、人力资本状况以及人口抚养比对中国城市的住房需求具有深远影响。从各解释变量回归参数的时空变化中可以看出,人口结构因素的影响程度在时间和空间上均得到了明显强化。分区域的实证研究进一步揭示出了中国城市住房需求的人口结构矛盾在经济发展水平相对较高的城市和区域更加突出,并且呈现出明显的空间失配现象。2015—2030年中国城市住房需求的总体走势将会呈现出"上升一平稳一下降"的"倒U型"特征。2025年以后,中国城市的住房需求将不再具备快速增加的条件。因此,未来中国住房制度的综合配套改革目标,一方面要着眼于抑制当前及今后十年内投资和投机性需求所带来的房价过快上涨;另一方面,要对2025年后可能出现的人口结构"蘑菇云"风险有所预警。

本文将住房购买视作解决居住问题的长期投资,通过现金流净现值、溢价率、内部收益率等指标的计算来考察一个地区住房市场是否存在泡沫及其程度。以2009年3～10月易居网上发布的二手住房出售、出租数据为基础,应用上述方法对北京市、上海市、深圳市各城(地)区住房市场研究表明,这3个城市的住房市场不同程度地存在泡沫。

基于国家统计局城镇住户调查(UHS)2002—2007年的家户数据,本文研究土地供给、住房价格和居民储蓄的关系。研究表明,住房价格上涨使得居民不得不"为买房而储蓄",从而提高居民储蓄率:住房价格上升1个百分点,城镇居民储蓄率将上升0.067个百分点,这解释了2002—2007年间我国城镇居民储蓄率上升的45%。进一步研究发现,住房价格上涨主要影响收入水平较低、没有住房或住房面积较小的家庭;同时,住房价格对年轻人和老年人的影响较大。以土地供给作为住房价格的工具变量有效缓解了内生性问题,2SLS回归结果表明,土地供给越少,住房价格水平越高,居民储蓄率越高。本文的结论对于降低地方政府"土地财政"依赖程度、建立扩大消费需求的长效机制等相关政策讨论具有一定的现实意义。

This study examines the role played by real estate agents in fraudulent activities in China’s housing market. We show that agents contribute to the formation of Yin–Yang contracts and the magnitude of resulting tax evasion through two possible mechanisms: the learning-by-doing effect and the peer effect. Agents’ cumulative experience allows them to discover local registration authorities’ monitoring capability and strategically register prices close to the internal guideline prices. Moreover, agents’ involvement in tax evasion is significantly affected by the tax evasion behaviors of their peers. The difference-in-differences analyses across two policy shocks show that the involvement of experienced real estate agents exacerbates the magnitude of tax evasion during periods of frequent government policy adjustments.

In this paper, we provide an overview of the subprime mortgage securitization process and the seven key informational frictions that arise. We discuss the ways that market participants work to minimize these frictions and speculate on how this process broke down. We continue with a complete picture of the subprime borrower and the subprime loan, discussing both predatory borrowing and predatory lending. We present the key structural features of a typical subprime securitization, document how rating agencies assign credit ratings to mortgage-backed securities, and outline how these agencies monitor the performance of mortgage pools over time. Throughout the paper, we draw upon the example of a mortgage pool securitized by New Century Financial during 2006.

Cao, Yujin, Chen, Jidong, and Zhang, Qinghua—Housing investment in urban China What explains the rapidly increasing housing investment demand in China? To address this question, we develop an analytical framework featuring how expected capital gains impact households’ housing investment decisions when subject to financial constraints. Housing demand in China takes place not only through households’ owning multiple houses, but also through their owning a larger primary living residence if they are constrained from buying multiple houses. We show that households are more likely to own multiple houses when expecting higher capital gains. As expected capital gain increases, the primary housing demand of those households who are constrained from owning multiple houses increases, while those owing multiple housing units invest in extra ones instead of improving primary housing. Our empirical findings, based on 2010 and 2011 household survey data, are consistent with our theoretical predictions. We also find that the marginal effect of expected capital gains is higher for wealthier households. This links the booming housing market to widening income inequality which is a typical growth pain in a developing country like China. As an extension, we apply the analysis to derive implications of the institutional features (such as purchasing restriction policy and the existence of subsidized housing) for China’s housing markets. Journal of Comparative Economics 46 (2018) 212–247. Institute of Economic Research, Chinese Academy of Macroeconomic Research, China; Business School, Beijing Normal University, China; Guanghua School of Management, Peking University, China.

This paper empirically examines how real estate risk impacts corporate investment and financing decisions. Using a panel of United States firms from 1985 to 2013, we document that real estate risk is negatively associated with firms' long-term investments and long-term external financing in equity and debt. The results are robust to different risk measurements and in particular salient during the financial crisis period when the endogeneity between risk and investment is less of a concern. The effect on firm leverage, however, depends on risk measures. Overall, in contrast to previously documented positive effects of the real estate value, real estate risk exposure exhibits mostly the opposite effects on investment, The paper has been presented at the AREUEA-ASSA 2015, ARES 2014 (manuscript prize), CICF 2014, AREUEA International Conference 2014 and the NUS-Maastricht-MIT Symposium 2015. We thank Rossen Valkanov, David C Ling, Timothy Riddiough, Li Yi, Rene Woltering, Moussa Diop and other participants for valuable comments. We are grateful for the discussions with Sumit Agarwal, Abdullah Yavas, Yildiray Yildirim, Peng Liu, David H.Downs, Gianluca Marcato, and Shangjin Wei for feedbacks. As this paper is built on a part of Xiaoying's PhD thesis, she specially thank the thesis committee members and examiners: Yongheng Deng, Brent Ambrose, and Masaki Mori for the valuable feedback. * Xiaoying Deng deng.xiaoying@mail.shufe.edu.cn Seow Eng Ong seong@nus.edu.sg Meijun Qian meijun.qian@anu.edu.au 1 School of Public Economics and Administration, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, 777 Guoding Road, Shanghai 200433, China 2 Department of Real Estate, National University of Singapore, 4 Architecture Drive, Singapore 117566, Singapore 3 Research School of Finance, Actuarial Studies and Statistics, Australian National University, CBE 26C, Kingsley, Acton ACT 2601, Australia X. Deng et al. financing and capital structure. This difference is consistent with option value determinants. Findings in this paper shed new lights on the impact of real estate holding on corporate decisions, offer a new explanation for the underperformance of hedge funds' real estate strategies, and confirm the theoretical predictions in Deng et al. (2015).

This paper examines whether homeowner opposition to nearby housing development affects local councillors’ votes on housing bills. Homeowners benefit financially from restricted housing supply through increased housing prices. City councillors, who approve housing development applications, cater to the needs of homeowners who are often long-term resident voters with a financial stake in neighbourhood amenity levels. Using data from Toronto, Canada from 2009 to 2020, we identify housing bills through a machine learning algorithm. We find that councillors who represent more homeowners oppose more housing bills. In particular, councillors are significantly more likely to oppose large housing developments if the project is within their own ward.

This paper studies a quantitative general equilibriummodel of the housing market where a large number of overlapping generations of homeowners face both idiosyncratic and aggregate risks but have limited opportunities to insure against these risks due to incomplete financial markets and collateralized borrowing constraints. Interest rates in the model, like housing and equity returns, are determined endogenously from a market clearing condition. The model has two key elements not previously considered in existing quantitative macro studies of housing finance: aggregate business cycle risk, and a realistic wealth distribution driven in the model by bequest heterogeneity in preferences. These features of the model play a crucial role in the following results. First, a relaxation of financing constraints leads to a large boom in house prices. Second, the boom in house prices is entirely the result of a decline in the housing risk premium. Third, low interest rates cannot explain high home values. Jack Favilukis Sauder School of Business University of British Columbia Henry Angus Building 2053 Main Mall Office 867 Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2 Canada jack.favilukis@sauder.ubc.ca Sydney C. Ludvigson Department of Economics New York University 19 W. 4th Street, 6th Floor New York, NY 10002 and NBER sydney.ludvigson@nyu.edu Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh Stern School of Business New York University 44 W 4th Street, Suite 9-120 New York, NY 10012 and NBER svnieuwe@stern.nyu.edu

We use survey data to measure households’ propensity to default on mortgages even if they can afford to pay them (strategic default) when the value of the mortgage exceeds the value of the house. The willingness to default increases in both the absolute and the relative size of the home‐equity shortfall. Our evidence suggests that this willingness is affected by both pecuniary and non‐pecuniary factors, such as views about fairness and morality. We also find that exposure to other people who strategically defaulted increases the propensity to default strategically because it conveys information about the probability of being sued.

Real estate returns, measured unleveraged, have been between those of stocks and bonds over 1960–1982. Due to appraisal smoothing and imperfect marketability, one must be careful about directly comparing measured real estate returns with those on other assets. It is likely, however, that low correlations with stocks and bonds make real estate a diversification opportunity for traditional portfolio managers. In addition, the issue of how various assets are priced is addressed. While stocks are priced primarily on market or beta risk, and bonds are priced primarily on interest rate and default risk, the real estate pricing mechanism includes residual risk and non‐risk factors such as taxes, marketability costs and information costs.

This paper unveils a new resource for macroeconomic research: a long-run dataset covering disaggregated bank credit for 17 advanced economies since 1870. The new data show that the share of mortgages on banks' balance sheets doubled in the course of the 20th century, driven by a sharp rise of mortgage lending to households. Household debt to asset ratios have risen substantially in many countries. Financial stability risks have been increasingly linked to real estate lending booms which are typically followed by deeper recessions and slower recoveries. Housing finance has come to play a central role in the modern macroeconomy. scar Jord Economic Research, MS 1130 Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 101 Market St. San Francisco, CA 94105 and University of California, Davis oscar.jorda@sf.frb.org Moritz Schularick Department of Economics University of Bonn Adenauerallee 24-42 Bonn 53113 Germany moritz.schularick@uni-bonn.de Alan M. Taylor Department of Economics and Graduate School of Management University of California One Shields Ave Davis, CA 95616-8578 and NBER amtaylor@ucdavis.edu

This study explores the role of direct real estate investment in a portfolio context incorporating the real estate imperfections of indivisible assets and no short sales. Mean‐variance efficient portfolios are calculated using Treasury‐bills, bond and equity indices together with cash flows and appraised values from a set of twenty‐two properties having an aggregate appraised value of $336 million. Real estate diversification benefits are shown to be the greatest with smaller properties and are most advantageous at higher target levels of return. The study suggests that a 9% allocation to real estate is optimal, rather than the 20% figure suggested in other studies.

We demonstrate that a rapid expansion in the supply of mortgages driven by disintermediation explains a large fraction of recent U.S. house price appreciation and subsequent mortgage defaults. We identify the effect of shifts in the supply of mortgage credit by exploiting within-county variation across zip codes that differed in latent demand for mortgages in the mid 1990s. From 2001 to 2005, high latent demand zip codes experienced large relative decreases in denial rates, increases in mortgages originated, and increases in house price appreciation, despite the fact that these zip codes experienced significantly negative relative income and employment growth over this time period. These patterns for high latent demand zip codes were driven by a sharp relative increase in the fraction of loans sold by originators shortly after origination, a process which we refer to as "disintermediation." The increase in disintermediation-driven mortgage supply to high latent demand zip codes from 2001 to 2005 led to subsequent large increases in mortgage defaults from 2005 to 2007. Our results suggest that moral hazard on behalf of originators selling mortgages is a main culprit for the U.S. mortgage default crisis. Atif Mian University of Chicago Graduate School of Business 5807 South Woodlawn Avenue Chicago, IL 60637 and NBER atif@chicagogsb.edu Amir Sufi University of Chicago Graduate School of Business 5807 South Woodlawn Avneue Chicago, IL 60637 amir.sufi@chicagogsb.edu

在系统梳理我国基础设施投融资模式的基础上,对基础设施REITs试点的现状和问题进行讨论,研究发现首批基础设施REITs挂牌上市后存在税收政策不足、基础资产转让政策不完善、监管制度不完善、项目筛选难度加大、中介服务机构能力欠缺以及二级市场流动性不足等问题。针对存在的问题提出以下政策建议:健全税收优惠等相关法律制度、建立项目遴选审核指标体系、优化项目运营管理中介服务体系、完善二级市场做市商制度和组建多层次基础设施REITs项目智库,希望为进一步推进我国基础设施REITs市场健康发展、盘活存量资产、推动经济高质量发展提供借鉴。

本文使用中国某主要商业银行2004年4月至2009年5月发放的大样本房贷数据考察了房贷拖欠和违约风险决定因素及其区域差异。研究发现:(1)房价余额比(PTB)显著影响房贷拖欠风险,但债务收入比(DTI)不显著,这表明借款人通常因权益为负而非负担不起而违约。(2)房价只对1个月房贷拖欠具有显著负影响,贷款余额对所有房贷拖欠和违约风险具有显著正影响,而收入和月供无显著影响。据此,商业银行应加强对大额房贷违约风险的管理。(3)房价增长率对所有房贷拖欠和违约风险具有显著负影响,而收入增长率只对1个月拖欠风险具有显著负影响。因此,只要房价和收入保持增长,房贷拖欠和违约风险将下降。(4)房贷拖欠风险具有明显的城市差异。因此,地理位置多样化有助于降低房贷拖欠和违约风险。(5)二手房房贷比一手房房贷具有更高的拖欠和违约风险,商业银行应加强二手房房贷的拖欠和违约风险管理。

本文利用成都市房地产交易的微观数据(2004—2006),实证检验了我国房地产信贷政策的变化对微观个体住房贷款决策行为的影响效果。我们发现,地方购房者的贷款决策对中央利率调控有明显反应。实证结果显示:当长期贷款利率升幅较短期贷款利率升幅高0.1百分点时,贷款者选择短期贷款的概率增加8.4个百分点;而且利用商业住房贷款利率和公积金贷款利率变动差异的"自然实验",我们有效控制了可能由宏观政策内生性产生的计量问题,从微观角度为长、短期利率政策的有效性提供了更可靠的实证检验。此外,我们还发现首付比例政策并没有得到地方银行的严格实施。因此,文章建议政府进一步重视利率政策对房地产市场的调整,而包括首付比例等相关政策的实施需加强对地方执行部门监管的力度。

本文研究了中国居民家庭投资结构变化的规律,并从生命周期效应、财富效应以及住房的角度研究了中国居民家庭投资结构变化的影响因素。研究结果显示,我国居民家庭投资结构的生命周期特征在某种程度上存在,但是对不同资产不一致。从风险性角度讲,居民家庭的投资结构是一个"钟型"结构,但是就极度风险的金融衍生产品期货来说,年轻人更乐于冒险。住房投资显著地挤出了投资者在流动性资产上的投资;财富对于投资者投资结构的影响是相当明显的,除期货外,基本上财富增加,各类风险资产的参与率也会有增加,但对现金和存款等低风险资产有一个倒U型的结构。另外,家庭投资行为的主要依据是当前的财富,家庭极少对未来的预期收入进行套期保值。

不动产信托投资基金(REITs)对重塑企业再投资能力,化解地方债务负担,推动金融市场稳定健康发展,深化混合所有制改革及促进政府与社会资本合作,引导社会资本投资方向具有重要意义。参照美国REITs发展,从发展历程、产品模式、税收制度三个方面,对国内外REITs市场进行了横向比较,更加全面地认识我国REITs的不足之处及其成因。在此基础上,从发行模式的公募化、产品形式的权益化、经营方式的自主化、基础资产范畴的多样化、法律及税收制度的配套化五个方向提出我国REITs的发展建议,有助于推动符合国际标准的REITs在我国制度体系下真正落地。

党的十九届五中全会提出,"十四五"时期经济社会发展以推动高质量发展为主题,把创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享的新发展理念贯穿发展全过程,加快构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局。基础设施建设是经济社会发展的重要支撑,具有战略性、基础性、先导性作用,统筹推进基础设施建设,是党中央在新发展阶段提出的新要求。近年来,由于非标融资受限、PPP项目入库趋严、城投债逐渐转型,传统的基建融资工具面临瓶颈,基础设施建设资金明显不足。2020年世界遭受前所未有的新冠疫情,我国凭借自身制度优势与得力防控,经济率先从疫情影响中稳步复苏,成为唯一取得经济正增长的主要经济体。但是,不容忽视的是,我国仍面临经济增长的持续性、结构性、普惠性与防范系统性风险等诸多挑战,基础设施建设的重要性仍然凸显。此时,发展公募REITs,不仅能够盘活存量、补充基建资金来源,护航经济增长,而且对降低政府和企业杠杆率,丰富居民资产配置工具,也具有重要的战略意义。

REITs作为资产上市载体，在基础设施项目自身收益风险特征基础上，通过提高流动性、资产运营分离和底层资产分散，提高了资产收益，分散了投资风险，进而形成了新的收益风险特征。从海外经验看，REITs的投资收益较高、风险相对较低，且与股票、债券存在低相关性，是股票、债券之外的全新金融产品。通过对中国基础设施REITs收益风险特征的定量分析，发现基础设施REITs收益风险特征与海外REITs相类似，具有典型的较高收益、中等风险的特征。一方面，基础设施REITs的收益率与股票不相上下，甚至略高于股票，但收益的波动率小于股票；另一方面，基础设施REITs的收益率远高于债券，收益的波动率也远高于债券。此外，REITs收益与股票、债券收益之间的低相关性，显现出REITs产品的独特性，也意味着中国基础设施REITs是独立于股票、债券之外的一类全新资产。基础设施REITs收益与风险特征研究为中国投资领域发展带来了一些启示：一是REITs为投资者提供了直接参与基础设施等资产投资的渠道，产品本身具有良好的收益风险比，对投资者财富保值增值意义重大。二是大量的存量资产为基础设施REITs提供了丰富的底层资产，进而...

结合当前房地产市场形势,以凯德与万达为例,分析国内外房地产企业轻资产战略转型。凯德集团前期剥离非核心资产,进而通过"REITs+PE Funds"运作转型为商业地产基金管理者;万达利用自身优势发展万达金融,实现多元融资,通过总包交钥匙模式实现新资产服务收益模式。在此基础上,提出房地产企业轻资产战略转型的启示。

近年来以个人住房按揭贷款为主要形式的居民个人消费金融在国内发展迅速,为全面深入研究个人住房按揭贷款违约风险的主要影响因素,本文构建了四维度整体分析框架,提出用非参数随机森林法进行异常点度量和特征变量选取,设计个人住房按揭贷款违约风险的Logistic回归模型,对影响方向和影响程度进行深入的定量分析。结果表明,在所选择的17个分析变量中影响显著的有8个因素。研究结论为商业银行和其他金融机构在开展个人住房按揭贷款等消费金融业务时如何防范和管理风险,提供了新的分析方法与实际指导作用。

We perform a comprehensive neighborhood level analysis of housing supply. Predictions of floorspace and housing unit supply elasticities using our estimates average 0.5 and 0.3 across all urban neighborhoods in the US, exhibiting greater variation within than between metro regions. New construction accounts for about 50 percent of unit supply responses, with important additional roles for teardowns and renovations. Supply responses grow with CBD distance, mostly from the increasing availability of undeveloped land, flatter land, and less regulation. Identification comes from variation in labor demand shocks to commuting destinations, as aggregated using insights from a quantitative spatial equilibrium model.

Over the past 30 years, eastern Massachusetts has seen a remarkable combination of rising home prices and declining supply of new homes. The reductions in new supply don't appear to reflect a real lack of land, but instead reflect a response to man-made restrictions on development. In this paper, we examine the land-use regulations in greater Boston. There has been a large increase in the number of new regulations, which differ widely over space. Few variables, other than historical density and abundant recreational water, reliably predict these regulations. High lot sizes and other regulations are associated with less construction. The regulations boost prices by decreasing density, but density levels seem far too low to maximize total land value. Edward L. Glaeser Department of Economics 315A Littauer Center Harvard University Cambridge, MA 02138 and NBER eglaeser@harvard.edu Bryce A. Ward NBER 1050 Massachusetts Ave Cambridge MA 02138 bward@fas.harvard.edu

This paper studies the effects of government land regulations (GLR) on housing supply elasticity in urban China. We first extend the theoretical framework of Saiz (2010), then use land transaction microdata, satellite-generated data, and the construction of instrumental variables to analyze the marginal effect of GLR, and finally calculate the housing supply elasticity caused by GLR. Our analysis finds that GLR is an important reason for the overall inelasticity of housing supply in 272 Chinese cities, which reduces housing supply elasticity from 1.457 (elastic) to 0.872 (inelastic). Housing supply elasticity caused by GLR has declined the most in first-tier cities and the eastern regions. The marginal effect of land use regulation is greater than that of land allocation and supply regulations. The initial development level and natural geographic constraint of each city also matter in China’s housing supply market.

China is currently experiencing rapid rises in labor cost. Since 2003, the central government has increased the share of land use quotas allocated to the central and western regions to support their development. As a result, the relative decline in land supply in the eastern regions has raised housing prices and consequently increased wages, damaging the competitiveness of the Chinese economy. On the basis of citylevel panel data from 2001 to 2010, we used the per capita land supply as the instrument variable for housing prices and analyzed the sub-samples along the border between the inland and the eastern regions. We found that land supply policies have led to the rapid growth of housing prices and increased wages in the cities where land supply has been restricted, mainly in eastern region. This study indicates that regardless of the geographical advantages of the east region, land supply policies have had a negative impact on the efficiency and competitiveness of the Chinese economy.

This paper proposes a method for estimating the extent to which density regulation causes the actual housing supply per land unit to deviate from the unconstrained amount, i.e., the impact of density regulation on the intensive margin of housing supply. To overcome the challenges that both the housing supply per land unit (which is a combination of quantity and quality measures) and its unconstrained amount are unobserved to the researchers, we extend the framework of Epple, Gordon and Sieg (2010) by explicitly allowing substitution between the quantity and quality inputs in the housing production function and by imposing a regulatory upper limit on the use of the quantity input. We show theoretically that the land share of the housing value can be used as a proxy for the stringency of the density regulation. We apply this method in our investigation of the stringency of floor-to-area ratio (FAR) regulation in urban China at the land-parcel level and find that the regulation imposes a significant binding constraint on the housing supply per land unit. We then explore the spatial and temporal variations of FAR regulation stringency. We also find that the FAR regulation stringency intensified the housing price appreciation that occurred during the economic stimulus period after 2008.

We estimate the effect of land use regulation on the value of land by exploiting variation in regulation and land values across municipal borders. Since the value of land gives us the market's measure of the attractiveness of a location, our estimates allow us to draw conclusions about the effect of land use regulation on welfare. Reductions to an aggregate measure of regulatory intensity are welfare improving. Looking at a more detailed description of regulation leads to a more subtle prescription. complexity of the planning process and a planning process subject to political manipulation are most harmful. Not all land use regulation is harmful, however. Regulation which requires minimum lot sizes for residential development increases land values.

This paper seeks to understand the importance of changes in the fundamental factors of demand and supply, such as the urban hukou population, wage income, urban land supply, and construction costs, in explaining the rising residential housing prices in major Chinese cities between 2002 and 2008. We propose an empirical approach that uses both city-level and residential development project-level data. Results suggest that, for most of the cities in our sample, changes in fundamental factors can account for a major proportion of the actual housing price appreciation. However, in several coastal cities, the actual increase in housing prices deviates largely from what can be predicted from fundamental changes. Ó 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Economic fundamentals are recognized as determining factors for housing and land prices on the city level, but the relationship between housing price and land price has been disputed. In this paper, a simultaneous-equations model is developed to explore the interaction between housing price and land price. This model uses urban land price and housing price as endogenous variables and five factors for land price and seven factors for housing price as exogenous variables. By using sample data of 21 provincial cities in China from 2000 to 2005, the model is estimated by using the two-stage least-squares method. Housing price and land price have an endogenous interrelationship, and as a whole, housing price has greater influence on land price. Per capita disposable income is not only an important factor for land price but also has a direct impact on housing price. Lagged house price has the highest degree of influence on housing price, which implies that increased house price is the expected effect of housing price. The model is effective and reasonable, and it can provide a basis for relevant government departments to establish related policies.

There is a growing body of literature on China's land reform, land system and land-centred urbanisation. While the contribution of land proceeds to Chinese local public finance and infrastructure investment has been widely acknowledged, few studies examine land through the perspective of financialisation, namely how land development uses financial instruments to generate development finance. The process of land-driven financialisation in China has not been well understood. This paper examines the land mortgage, which has accelerated since 2008, and subsequent waves of financialisation through local government financial vehicles (LGFVs) and Chengtou Bonds (urban construction and investment bonds). We highlight that the adoption of a fiscal stimulus package triggered land financialisation, which started as a development strategy for crisis management in China.

本文使用中国35个大中城市2003～2008年土地市场和房地产市场数据,考察了土地出让方式对地价和房价的影响。描述性分析发现,地价房价比不高,均值为10.23%;土地出让金占地方财政收入比重均值为62.49%,已成为地方政府的"第二财政";协议出让面积占比最高,其次是挂牌出让和行政划拨,最小是拍卖和招标,土地出让存在明显的"双轨制"。实证发现,房价主要是由供求决定的,而非地价和土地出让方式决定的。因此,控制房价过快上涨,主要是调节房地产供求关系,而非一味地降低地价乃至否定土地的"招拍挂"制度。实证还发现,地价主要是由房价决定的,而非土地出让方式决定的。这表明,"招拍挂"制度并未导致地价的快速上涨,高房价是"地王"出现的主因。

住房供给弹性是决定房价水平的关键因素之一。中国城市的住房供给是否缺乏弹性?影响住房供给弹性大小的关键因素又是什么?为探究上述问题,本文构建了一个包含自然地理约束、耕地保护约束和容积率规制的单中心城市模型,重点考察了三者对住房供给弹性的影响机理,进而运用数字高程模型数据与微观土地交易数据,全面测度了中国城市土地开发中的自然地理约束和容积率规制强度,并基于2005—2013年中国城市层面的统计数据,采用外生冲击引起的需求变动这一识别策略来估计住房供给弹性。研究发现:中国城市的住房供给整体表现为缺乏弹性,而自然地理约束及容积率规制是导致住房供给缺乏弹性的重要原因;人口规模越大的城市,其住房供给弹性越小,且受自然地理约束的制约程度越高。这为中国当前房价整体涨幅明显,尤其是大城市房价居高不下的典型事实提供了一个新的解释视角。因此,政府应当坚持"因城施政"的思路,适当降低土地开发中的容积率规制强度,逐步增加供给弹性偏低的大城市土地供应,以促进房地产市场的平稳、健康发展。

近20年的工业化进程表现出“规模大、速度快、后劲足，同时还伴随着资本深化和金融深化持续进行”这五大特征。现有文献由于对土地要素的忽略，尚未能够很好地解释当前中国工业化的特色。通过对典型事实的梳理和实证分析，本文发现：城乡土地二元制度与官员晋升机制、财税制度和金融制度产生了激励相容，从而催生出了一个以“土地引资、土地财政和土地金融”为核心的高效融资模式。具体而言：由于在土地征收和出让环节享有双垄断地位，地方政府一方面可以采取低价供应土地的措施进行招商引资（土地引资），另一方面又通过享有超高的土地增值收益来为城市建设融资（土地财政），同时土地抵押的杠杆效应不仅放松了地方政府的信贷约束，更是有效缓解了快速发展阶段全社会的信用饥渴（土地金融）。但近年来出现的房价和土地征收成本的飙升以及土地金融所蕴含的重大风险等现象表明，“以地融资”模式是不可持续的。

本文构建包含中央政府和地方政府的两地区多部门波动模型，分析了地方政府竞争机制在房产需求冲击传导和溢出中扮演的角色。研究表明：单个地区的房产需求冲击首先通过房地产部门传导至该地区财政收入，导致当地公共支出波动。在两级政府存在信息不对称的情况下，地方政府有动机开展对公共支出和人力资本的竞争，因此，另一地区的公共支出也会同向波动，产出、消费等宏观经济变量同步受到影响，冲击带来的影响随之溢出。脉冲响应结果显示：地区间竞争的机制将可以传导和放大整体经济波动。更换居民效用函数形式、在非房地产部门引入工业用地作为生产要素等稳健性检验均不会改变结论。此外，基于现实情况，本文还在模型中引入了劳动力供给时长的内生决策、劳动力的行业间配置、央地税收分成等拓展机制，阐释了拓展机制对模型结果的影响。这一研究将为地区间竞争机制如何影响中国经济波动提供新的视角，也为推动经济的长期稳定发展提供有益的理论参考。

本文聚焦中国2008～2019年期间市级政府的撤县设区行为，尝试通过呈现从目标到行动的完整逻辑链条，建立一个地方政府行为逻辑的识别策略，以验证市级政府撤县设区追求土地出让收入的行为逻辑。实证结果证实，市级政府为了扩大土地出让收入，通过撤县设区这种行政区划调整实现撤并县的管理权集中，在此基础上利用其城市发展规划权，对建设用地指标实施空间再配置，将更多建设用地指标配置到土地溢价更高的中心城区用于商住开发。同时，其通过推动空间一体化基础设施建设，强化了中心城区和外围城区（撤并县）房地产价格的联动。

2008年金融危机后,中国经济发展模式发生了显著变化,在外需萎缩和工业增加值减速的背景下,宏观经济从高速增长向中高速增长转变,而基建投资加速、房地产价格高企、地方政府债务攀升等现象相伴而生。本文构建了一个包含宏观调控、地方政府、土地市场和地方政府债务的动态一般均衡模型,研究金融危机等外部冲击影响中国经济发展的内在逻辑机制,强调中国特色的宏观调控和地方政府行为的关键性作用。研究发现:地方政府行为转变是金融危机影响我国宏观经济的重要渠道,外部冲击导致以"招商引资"为基础的"土地财政"模式难以持续,地方政府逐步转向以"基建投资"为依托的"土地金融"模式,其代价是房价高企和地方政府债务快速攀升。增加建设用地指标、放松地方政府举债约束和刺激房地产市场等宏观调控政策,在稳定经济增长的同时放大了地方政府行为对宏观经济的影响。本文在统一的理论框架下解释了金融危机后基建投资加速、房地产价格高企、地方政府债务攀升和经济增长率温和下滑等一系列宏观重大现象,为理解金融危机前后中国经济发展模式转型提供了理论基础。构建"双循环"新发展格局是应对国际形势不确定性的重大战略举措,完善宏观调控体系和地方政府激励机制是妥...

关于地方政府供地模式同时存在“饥饿供地”和“售地冲动”两种对立观点，造成一定的理论和现实困扰。从土地财政视角看，地方政府的最优供地模式取决于房价变动对土地供应变动的反应程度。通过构建2003—2016年地级以上城市土地出让的房价响应模型实证发现，房价对土地出让变动并不敏感。地方政府为增加售地收入，更倾向于扩大供地而非“饥饿供地”。区域异质性模型和城市等级异质性模型结果表明，无论东中西部还是一、二、三、四线城市，都更倾向于扩大售地。分位数回归和核密度估计显示，低房价及三、四线城市有更明显的扩大供地冲动。进一步的拓展分析表明，地方政府出于发展经济的目的，也倾向于扩大供地量。但现实中，由于土地指标受到严格宏观控制，结构性供地不足和普遍的售地冲动同时存在。因此，可通过挖掘供地潜力、增加用地灵活性来缓解结构性供求矛盾，以促进房地产市场平稳健康发展。

针对中国经济正在出现劳动成本快速上升的现象,使用来自中国286个地级市2001—2010年的面板数据,用土地供应作为房价的工具变量,并结合东部—中西部边界样本的对比,在有效控制内生性可能导致的模型估计偏误之后,研究房价对于工资的带动作用,结果发现:2003年以来,政府开始实行倾向于中西部的土地供应政策,相应压缩东部的土地供应,造成东部地区房价快速上升,并进而推升了东部地区的工资上涨,而这一效应在中西部和2003年之前的东部则不显著。这表明,忽视地理对于经济发展的关键作用,用行政手段来干预土地资源在区域间的配置,可能对经济发展效率和竞争力产生负面影响。

2003年以来,中国的房价经历了快速上涨。本文从土地的空间配置政策视角出发,研究了2003年后土地供给倾向中西部的政策转变对城市房价上涨的影响。我们发现,2003年以后土地供给相对受限制的城市以沿海地区和内地的大城市为主,而这些城市恰恰是人口流入地。2004-2013年,与土地供给相对放松的城市相比,土地供给相对收紧城市的房价平均要高10. 6%,而且仅仅在土地供给相对收紧的城市出现了房价-工资比率的上升。本研究表明,当前不同城市之间房价的分化,根源在于土地供给在空间上与土地需求不匹配。未来房地产市场健康平稳发展的长效机制应该侧重增加住房需求较大地区的土地供给,减少土地供给在空间上的扭曲。

Economists’ traditional hostility to rent contols is based on models that treat the housing market as perfectly competitive and on the experience with ‘hard’ controls in New York City and many European countries following World War II. The current ‘soft’ rent control systems in North America are varied and qualitatively different from earlier hard controls. The theoretical case against them is weak, particularly when the housing market is viewed as imperfectly competitive. The empirical case against them is weak, too. Economists should reconsider their blanket opposition to current rent control systems and evaluate them on a case-by-case basis.

Understanding potential spillovers from the attributes and actions of neighborhood residents onto the value of surrounding properties and neighborhoods is central to both the theory of urban economics and the development of efficient housing policy. This paper measures the capitalization of housing market spillovers by studying the sudden and largely unanticipated 1995 elimination of stringent rent controls in Cambridge, Massachusetts that had previously muted landlords' investment incentives and altered the assignment of residents to locations. Pooling administrative data on the assessed values of each residential property and the prices and characteristics of all residential transactions between 1988 and 2005, we find that rent control's removal produced large, positive, and robust spillovers onto the price of never-controlled housing from nearby decontrolled units. Elimination of rent control added about $1.8 billion to the value of Cambridge's housing stock between 1994 and 2004, equal to nearly a quarter of total Cambridge residential price appreciation in this period. Positive spillovers to never-controlled properties account for more half of the induced price appreciation. Residential investments can explain only a small fraction of the total. David H. Autor MIT, Department of Economics E52-371 50 Memorial Drive Cambridge, MA 02142-1347 and NBER dautor@mit.edu Christopher J. Palmer MIT, Department of Economics E52-391 50 Memorial Drive Cambridge, MA 02142-1347 cjpalmer@mit.edu Parag A. Pathak MIT, Department of Economics E52-391C 50 Memorial Drive Cambridge, MA 02142-1347 and NBER ppathak@mit.edu

We exploit quasi-experimental variation in assignment of rent control to study its impacts on tenants, landlords, and the overall rental market. Leveraging new data tracking individuals' migration, we find rent control increased renters' probabilities of staying at their addresses by nearly 20%. Landlords treated by rent control reduced rental housing supply by 15%, causing a 5.1% city-wide rent increase. Using a dynamic, neighborhood choice model, we find rent control offered large benefits to covered tenants. Welfare losses from decreased housing supply could be mitigated if insurance against rent increases were provided as government social insurance, instead of a regulated landlord mandate. Rebecca Diamond Graduate School of Business Stanford University 655 Knight Way Stanford, CA 94305 and NBER diamondr@stanford.edu Franklin Qian Landau Economics Building 579 Serra Mall Stanford, CA 94305 zqian1@stanford.edu Timothy McQuade Stanford Graduate School of Business School 655 Knight Way Stanford, CA 94305 tmcquade@stanford.edu

In this paper, we respectively evaluate the effects of home-purchase restrictions and the trial property taxes on housing prices in China using a counterfactual analysis. We modify the method of Hsiao, Ching and Wan (2012) by using the leave-nv-out cross-validation criterion for the optimal choice of the control cities. Some Monte Carlo simulations illustrate the better performance of our method. We then construct the counterfactual growth rates of housing prices in Beijing, Shanghai and Chongqing using the selected control cities. We find that: (i) purchase restrictions reduced the annual growth rate of housing prices in Beijing by 7.69 percent; (ii) the trial property tax of Chongqing reduced the annual growth rate of housing prices by 2.52 percent; (iii) the trial property tax of Shanghai had no significant effect on housing prices.

Federal income tax policy affects the cost of homeownership for many households. Popular discussions of the favorable tax treatment of owner-occupied housing usually focus on the tax-deductibility of mortgage interest and property tax payments, as well as the specialized tax rules that affect housing capital gains. Academic discussions, in contrast, emphasize the exclusion of the imputed rental income on owner-occupied housing as the key tax benefit for homeowners. This paper summarizes the current distribution of the tax benefits associated with the mortgage interest and property tax deductions. It contrasts this with the distribution of tax benefits associated with the current tax regime for imputed rental income relative to one that taxes homeowners as if they were landlords. It also reports how removing either deduction, or taxing homeowners as landlords, would affect the user cost of owner-occupied housing. I. Patterns of Homeownership, Mortgage Borrowing, and Itemization Status Variation across age and income groups in the tax savings associated with the mortgage interest and property tax deductions results primarily from differences in homeownership rates, itemization rates, and the financing of homes. We illustrate these differences using the sample of nonfarm households in the 2004 Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF). The SCF * Poterba: Department of Economics, MIT, 50 Memorial Drive, Cambridge, MA 02142, and NBER (e-mail: Poterba@mit.edu); Sinai: Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, 1465 Steinberg Hall--Dietrich Hall, 3620 Locust Walk, Philadelphia, PA 19104-6302, and NBER (e-mail: Sinai@wharton.upenn.edu). We are grateful to Igar Fuki for outstanding research assistance, to Alan Auerbach and Edward Glaeser for helpful comments, and to the National Science Foundation (Poterba), the Smith Richardson Foundation, and the Research Sponsors Program of the Zell-Lurie Real Estate Center at Wharton (Sinai) for research support.

In response to worsening housing affordability resulting from rapid housing price appreciation, some governments have introduced taxes or restrictions to reduce demand for local residential real estate by non-residents. We study the effectiveness of these efforts using the restrictions imposed by local Chinese governments in 2010–11 on the number of residential properties an individual could purchase. We use sales by developers of newly constructed units and exploit within city variation in the imposition of these restrictions to identify their effect on prices and transaction volumes. In addition to these direct effects on demand, we also identify the effects of these policies on supply using data from local government auctions of land to developers. Our results suggest that in the short run, restrictions on non-owner-occupant purchases significantly reduce activity levels by approximately 40%, compared to areas without restrictions. These effects diminish with time. However, there are no relative changes post-policy introduction in housing price between restricted and unrestricted areas. The results operate via enduser demand and not through the land market and the subsequent supply response by developers, as there is no relative change in either the number of land auctions or prices paid for land between districts with and districts without purchase restrictions following their introduction.

In this study, we examine how China’s home purchase restrictions (HPR) affect recent graduate students’ job search behavior. Using administrative records of all graduate students from Tsinghua University in China in the period 2006–2016, we find that HPR significantly discourages migrant students from accepting job offers in Beijing by 6.0 percentage points. Additionally, they are more likely to choose jobs in the public sector (where it is easier to obtain residency status and thus be eligible for home purchase), and the job offers they accept are less relevant to their field of study in graduate school. The HPR has a greater effect on male, PhD, and older students. These results suggest that intervention in the housing market could affect labor-market decisions, even for highly skilled workers.

This study assesses the effectiveness and drawbacks of maximum loan-to-value (LTV) ratios as a macroprudential tool based on Hong Kong's experience and econometric analyses of panel data from 13 economies. The tool is found to be effective in reducing systemic risk stemming from the boom-and-bust cycle of property markets. Although the tool could impose higher liquidity constraints on homebuyers, empirical evidence shows that mortgage insurance programmes (MIPs) that protect lenders from credit losses on the portion of loans over maximum LTV thresholds can mitigate this drawback without undermining the effectiveness of the tool. This finding indicates the important role of MIPs in enhancing the net benefits of LTV policy. Our estimations also show that the dampening effect of LTV policy on household leverage is more apparent than its effect on property market activities, suggesting that the policy effect may mainly manifest in impacts on household sector leverage.

本文利用2004—2013年230个地级市及1272家上市企业的数据,采用工具变量法和双重差分法(DID),在考虑房价蔓延的空间效应基础上,检验了城市房价上涨与蔓延以及限购政策的实施对中国技术创新活动的影响。研究结果表明:城市房价的快速上涨显著抑制了地区整体和企业个体的技术创新产出;在考虑了房价蔓延的空间效应时,由于创新活动存在显著的正向外溢效应,房价蔓延对周边城市技术创新活动产生了负面影响;利用DID研究显示,限购政策的实施有助于缓解城市房价上涨所带来的负面影响。中间机制分析表明,城市房价的上涨会导致投资结构的扭曲,通过对创新资金的"挤占效应"抑制了地区的技术创新水平。限购政策的实施并未显著影响房价,而是通过抑制房地产过度投资缓解了房价上涨对技术创新活动的负面影响。

2010年以来我国政府实施的五次房地产宏观调控中,以数量管制性质的"限购令"最为严苛。本文按照户籍和限购地域两个标准对限购政策了进行细分,在倍差法的研究框架内,通过动态面板模型CMM估计来评估限购政策对抑制住宅价格上涨的效果。实证研究发现,对非户籍购房人实施限购的政策效果最为明显。限购范围影响政策效果,仅在市区范围内限购难以起到抑制房价上涨的作用。通过对限购政策效果的评估,本文认为,投资(投机)性需求是推动我国房价上升的主要动力,我国房地产泡沫的根源在于粗放的经济增长方式,以货币超发带动经济增长的发展模式是房地产泡沫的根源所在,也是我国房地产市场调控的难度所在。

本文通过构建包含异质性个体的多部门世代交叠模型，研究不同保障性租赁住房实施方案的经济与福利效应。保障性租赁住房提升了居民租房需求并降低自有住房需求，导致租金上升和房价下降。对青年人租房实施补贴将带动其住房服务与存款的上升，存在显著的福利改善。在实施租房补贴政策的基础上，政府同时增加土地供应或租房供给，更有利于发挥保障性租赁住房对青年人消费与住房服务提升的促进作用，青年人福利改善更多。

本文在一个引入房地产和居民抵押贷款约束的异质性个体世代交替模型中，加入消费税、资本所得税和劳动所得税以匹配中国的现实税制结构，并依据中国数据对模型参数进行了校准。在此基础上引入房地产税，研究房地产税的税率和免征额调整以及从消费税向房地产税的税制结构转换对宏观经济、收入和财富分配的影响。本文的主要研究结论如下：第一，普遍征收房地产税对消费同时存在收入效应和替代效应，最终影响要看两种效应的相对强弱；总产出则随着房地产税率的提高呈倒U型变化，而房地产和总财富分配差距则随着房地产税率的提高而扩大。第二，合理的免征额设置是实现房地产税改善收入和财富分配功能的关键。第三，在合理设置免征额基础上，实行税制结构转换可以更好地发挥房地产税改善收入分配的作用，同时也可以进一步促进消费。本文实现了在统一的理论框架内，同时研究房地产税的宏观经济与分配效应，有效解决了基于微观调查数据的静态模拟所存在的动态不一致问题，为房地产税改革可能产生的影响和税制设计提供了政策参考。

完善住房市场体系是国民经济中的重要议题,限购政策作为政府稳定和调节房地产市场的主要手段,对房地产企业以及住房市场体系建设均有重要影响。本文利用上市房地产企业2008—2013年以及2015—2019年的相关数据,通过构建强度双重差分模型实证分析了两轮限购对上市房地产企业价值的影响及其作用路径。实证结果表明:第一,两轮限购政策均显著降低了上市房地产企业市场价值,当企业在限购城市销售占比越大时,价值下降幅度越大;第二,从企业经营绩效来看,两轮限购对其实际盈利和营运能力并未产生显著影响,第一轮提高了企业偿债的经营风险,而第二轮只是影响了企业的资产增长能力;第三,两轮限购对房地产市场产生异质性影响,第一轮并未显著影响房价上涨,而第二轮则显著遏制了房价上涨;第四,从股票市场看,第一轮限购主要是通过企业经营风险影响投资者预期,而第二轮限购则是通过影响房价来改变投资者预期,这进一步凸显了"房住不炒"的政策作用。本文的研究意义主要体现在制定与推进政策时应关注预期的作用,这对于当前"房住不炒"政策的长期实施及其政策效果的长期稳定都具有一定启示。

本文基于中国2010年住房市场"限购"的自然实验,考察了限购政策对城市层面的离婚率的影响。我们的研究发现:"限购"会使得所在地城市的离婚增加243对,相当于平均水平的4.5%,其中主要是由"1+1"模式的限购政策导致的,"N+1"模式的影响不够显著;因为"限购"的住房都在主城区,"限购"对离婚的效应主要集中在市辖区,郊区及地级市所辖县均没有影响;离婚的出现主要是为了获得购买多套房的投资机会,而不是缓解"限贷"所造成的流动性约束,即居民没有因为首付比和利率负担而选择离婚。本文的研究结论,意味着要重视住房政策产生的社会效应。

解决好住房问题，才能让青年人放开手脚为美好生活奋斗。为此，政府提出“加快建立多主体供给、多渠道保障、租购并举的住房制度”，各地也推出保障性安居工程改善城市年轻人、新市民的住房条件。安居才能乐业，保障房供给能否提升周边企业的人才吸引力？本文通过采集中国土地市场网有关保障房建设的20万余条数据，检验企业周边保障房供给对其人力资本积累的影响。研究发现，企业周边保障房供给量每提升1个标准差，其高学历人才占比提升9.1%。保障房建设缓解了高房价对人才的挤出效应，激励企业增加人力资本投入，从而实现人力资本积累。本文对于优化地方政府住房保障政策、助力区域经济高质量发展提供了政策启示。

文章通过分析我国自2003年以来的房地产税改革相关文献,对我国房地产税改革路径展开讨论。文章指出,我国房地产税改革已步入实施准备阶段,却面临举步维艰的现实困境。关键问题之一在于房地产税的理论选择至今尚无定论。缺少统一理论支撑的相关研究不具有相同的出发点,房地产税功能定位不明、税制设计层出不穷但缺乏可行性。文章认为,相比美国模式,以"受益性原则"为基础,学习英国、中国香港模式为代表的房地产税制,其房地产税功能定位更加准确,有助于降低我国房地产税开征的实施难度。

本文考察了始于大城市的住房限购政策对于住房市场泡沫的空间转移以及住宅用地出让空间布局的影响。研究发现,限购政策导致部分非限购城市房地产市场泡沫程度相对上升,并且商业住宅用地出让在政策实施后也向非限购城市倾斜。由于非限购城市经济活跃程度并没有因此增加且并非城市化过程中主要的人口流入地,这就意味着限购政策的空间溢出不仅放大了泡沫转移可能造成的房地产市场风险,也加剧了土地资源的空间错配。本文研究为决策部门更好地落实总书记关于房子"不是用来炒的定位"提供了研究依据及未来政策优化的方向。

中国住房市场化改革以来业已成型的带有生产主义特征的剩余型住房福利模式,是否在后金融危机时代发生转向:从生产主义到发展主义,从剩余型模式到社会民主模式?本文运用Harloe的大众化/剩余化社会住房概念,对中国40个城市的公租房准入标准进行了定量分析。研究发现,多数城市对本地人至少放宽到当地城镇居民人均可支配收入水平,建立起了较为大众化的公租房体系,对外来人口则进一步附加工作、社保等严苛条件,使得公租房体系非常剩余化。本地人住房的大众化具备了向社会民主模式转变的基础;同时生产主义的"有用原则"导致外地人公租房体系和城镇化水平更高的城市公租房体系都非常剩余化。中国住房福利制度是生产主义和剩余型模式,虽然具备一定的向社会民主模式转变的基础,但仍然在经济发展优先和公民社会权的保障之间徘徊,住房福利制度改革需要进一步推进。

This study explores the relationship between home ownership and subjective wellbeing in urban China using a nationally representative dataset. Compared with the limited extant literature on this topic for China, we use a more recent dataset, allow for a greater range of ownership forms, consider the source through which ownership was acquired and not only consider whether homeowners have a home loan, but also consider the source of the loan and its effect on subjective wellbeing. We find that not only home ownership, but the property rights one acquires and the source of those property rights matters for subjective wellbeing. Moreover, not only whether one has a home loan, but the type of home loan one has matters for subjective wellbeing. We also identify important differences in the homeownership-subjective wellbeing relationship across genders, generations and between those with a rural and urban household registration.

--This paper uses wealth changes driven by housing market variation to estimate the effect of family resources on fertility decisions. Using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we show that a $100,000 increase in housing wealth among home owners causes a 16% to 18% increase in the probability of having a child. There is no evidence of an effect of MSA-level housing price growth on the fertility of renters, however. We also present evidence that housing wealth growth increases total fertility and that the responsiveness of fertility to housing wealth has increased over time, commensurate with the recent housing boom.

A major objective of many neighborhood revitalization programs is to increase homeownership. Conventional wisdom holds that this is one of the best ways to stabilize areas in decline. This article questions convention by presenting a conceptual model of how homeownership rates might affect various indicators of neighborhood stability and by determining whether there is support for this model in the literature. The article also presents an original analysis of the relationship between homeownership rates and two measures of neighborhood stability. The literature review finds considerable support for an association between homeownership and both improved property maintenance and longer lengths of tenure. The analysis of census data similarly indicates less residential mobility and greater property value appreciation in areas with greater homeownership. Although initial values and citywide value changes appear to have much stronger effects on changes in property values than the tract homeownership rate, modest changes in homeownership rates are clearly associated with increased property values.

文章通过对具有代表性数据的系统分析,描述了流动人口住房空间、住房条件和住房拥有等多方面的基本情况和特点,综合探讨了制度性要素和个体要素对流动人口居住状况的影响,阐释了分析结果对促进流动人口居住融合的政策意义。总体而言,在其他条件相同的情况下,无论是城-城流动人口还是乡-城流动人口,总体居住状况都不如本地市民,乡-城流动人口的居屋面积更小、住房设施更差、房屋拥有更低,主要以寄居模式生活在城市,与安居之梦相距甚远。结合其他相关研究结果推断,居住融合可能是目前最难突破的一个制度瓶颈,也是乡-城流动人口融入城市的最大障碍。在劳动力人口日益消减的情势下,促进流动人口的安居对于流入地吸纳并留住人力资源格外重要。

人口增长是经济持续发展的动力，持续下降的生育率已成为中国经济面临的挑战之一。我国流动人口规模庞大，曾被称为“超生游击队”,但近年来流动人口的生育率下降明显，探寻他们的生育行为和生育意愿紧要而迫切。使用2014年中国流动人口动态调查数据，从社会融入的视角实证分析了房价、城市购房与流动人口二胎生育意愿之间的关系，研究表明房价上涨通过提升流动人口收入和降低失业风险渠道对流动人口生育第二胎的总体意愿产生了积极影响，呈现一种“财富效应”;城市购房对流动人口再生育意愿产生明显的抑制作用，且城市购房会削弱房价对再生育意愿的正向作用；进一步地，社会融入程度可以调节流动人口生育意愿对房价上涨的敏感性，这意味着高度城市融入的人口的生育意愿更容易受到房价的影响。从结论出发，提出实施“生育友好型”住房政策建议，保持房价和经济平稳的同时不断减轻城市新移民住房负担，从而提高流动人口乃至常住居民的生育意愿，这也是推动“新型城镇化”,实现“共享发展”的应有之义。

中国城镇化进入了以提升质量为特征的减速阶段,农民工有序完成迁移第二个过程,即在城市定居下来,这是高质量城镇化的重要组成部分,而快速上涨的城市房价对农民工定居意愿的影响日益凸显。本文首先构建中国城乡人口迁移两个过程的理论模型,分析城市住房价格对农民工定居意愿的影响及作用机制;其次将2012—2017年中国流动人口动态监测数据与288个城市数据匹配进行实证检验。研究发现,城市高房价显著降低了农民工的定居意愿,而定居意愿下降将会阻滞城镇化的进程。机制检验发现,城市高房价主要通过提高农民工家庭在城市的预期购房成本进而降低其定居意愿。此外,本文还进行了个体异质性和城市异质性检验。个体异质性检验发现,城市高房价对第二代、低受教育水平和本地无房农民工定居意愿的负向影响更大,对更高收入水平、更大发展空间以及可获得公共服务农民工定居意愿的负向影响更小;城市异质性检验发现,随着城市规模的扩大,城市高房价对农民工定居意愿影响的负向作用逐渐增大。本文的政策含义是抑制城市房价过快上涨、提高农民工收入和福利水平、提供更为平等的公共服务,以及解决好进城农民工"三权"有偿退出问题,可以增强农民工的定居意愿,推动城镇化...

积极应对人口老龄化、提振生育率对于我国长期稳定发展具有重要意义。基于2014、2018年中国家庭追踪调查数据实证检验了住房分层对城镇居民生育意愿的影响，研究结果表明，住房产权对生育意愿具有显著的促进作用，但该作用仅存在于多套住房产权者，一套住房产权者和无住房产权者表现出了较低的生育意愿。进一步的分析发现，房价上涨导致的财富不平等、多套住房产权者更好的居住条件以及相较于仅有一套住房产权者更低的住房贷款压力，使多套住房产权者的生育意愿高于一套住房产权者；保障房居住者由于较少的租金支出负担，其生育意愿高于在市场上租房者。该发现验证了仅有一套住房产权者低迷的生育意愿表现以及住房保障制度对于无住房产权者生育意愿的积极影响效应，为破解掣肘三孩政策实施效果的住房因素成因，实施具有长远意义的、生育友好的房地产政策具有重要意义。

本文利用2011—2014年全国流动人口动态监测调查数据,系统考察了城市租金上涨对流动人口家庭消费和社会融入的影响。研究发现租金上涨显著挤出了非住房消费,并导致流动人口的社会融入度下降。异质性分析显示,租金上涨对于年更大、男性、拥有高中及以上学历、在服务业工作的流动人口的影响更大。此外,租金上涨加剧了城市中流动人口与本地居民的居住分异。本研究对于如何促进流动人口更好地融入城市生活具有重要的理论和政策意义。

在中国近些年房价不断上涨而生育率持续走低的背景下，着重考察房价对家庭生育决策的作用机制。首先，通过构建模型，从理论角度阐述房价与家庭生育决策的关系。然后，在实证角度上，基于2010～2018年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)面板数据，借助Probit回归模型分析发现，家庭所在区县的城镇房价会对其当期的生育决策产生显著的负面影响，且该影响在不同人群中存在明显的异质性。在政府实施两孩政策后，该负面影响也较生育政策调整前更为强烈。在影响机制方面，高房价对生育决策的影响存在消费挤出效应。高房价对生育的影响还存在着降低妇女自我认同、变相增加养育子女成本等其他机制。此外，高房价还对婚姻有抑制作用，会进一步加剧房价对生育水平的负面影响。

本文通过博弈模型分析表明,采用直接借款方式进行融资是中低收入者在购房时的最佳选择;采用契约型贷款的融资方式是其次优选择;而从双方的博弈结果看,金融机构在开展中低收入者的金融资本贷款业务时,内在倾向于少贷或者不贷,从而出现"信贷配给"现象;在我国要解决中低收入者住房难问题,就要大力推动直接型、契约型住房金融的发展。

文章基于近年来中国家庭面临的"住房难""不敢生"等特征事实,利用中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)面板数据,使用工具变量法实证估计了保障性住房、产权性住房对育龄人群生育意愿的影响效应,发现两类住房对生育均发挥出"正外部性"。进一步分析得出,住房对育龄人群生育意愿的影响效应在是否流动、不同年龄段、不同文化程度及首(多)次置业方面均表现出明显的异质性特征。本文的发现验证了"安居"对生育意愿的溢出效应,为新时代我国通过深化住房制度改革来实现"住有所居",进而促进生育意愿释放、跨越"低生育率陷阱"提供了经验证据。

住房状况是影响青年人口生育决策的重要因素。基于理论分析，识别住房状况影响青年人口生育意愿的作用机制，并利用中国综合社会调查（CGSS）微观数据检验住房的经济和社会属性对不同住房状况的青年人口生育意愿的异质性影响。结果表明，有房青年的生育意愿显著高于无房青年。房价上涨对青年人口生育意愿的影响受住房状况的调节，房价上涨对无房和仅有1套住房青年的生育意愿存在挤出效应，对有2套以上住房青年的生育意愿存在财富效应。住房的公共服务获取权属性提高了有房青年相对于无房青年的生育意愿。机制检验结果表明，住房通过对青年人口主观幸福感的影响提高了有房青年相对于无房青年的生育意愿。

以居民幸福感为民生指标,本文系统研究了家庭自有住房状况对居民幸福感的影响。首先,从理论上研究了住房影响居民幸福感的两种新机制——流动性约束和预防性储蓄;其次,基于中国跨省区城镇居民调查数据,本文对这两种机制进行了实证分析并获得了如下重要发现:(1)不同产权类型的自有住房对居民幸福感的影响存在显著差异,拥有大产权住房和更多的大产权住房能够显著提高居民幸福感,但拥有小产权住房以及小产权住房的数量对居民幸福感没有显著影响;(2)平均而言,大产权住房给首次置业和二(或多)次置业这两个居民群体带来的幸福感提升幅度并没有显著差异。但是,进一步研究发现,对于预防性储蓄动机更强和更可能受到流动性约束的家庭,二(或多)套大产权住房为其带来的幸福感提升幅度与首套房没有显著差异,而预防性储蓄动机较弱和受流动性约束可能性更低的家庭,大产权住房数量对居民幸福感提升的边际作用递减。这些发现很好地支持了本文的理论模型。

住房是农民工进入城市、融入城市的安身立命之所,而建设保障性住房(简称"保障房")是改善农民工居住条件,推进农民工市民化进程的关键举措之一。在此背景下,结合最新的2017年中国流动人口动态监测调查数据,系统考察了保障房对新生代农民工城市居留意愿的影响。研究表明:第一,居住在保障房的新生代农民工比例仍然偏低,意味着针对农民工的保障房建设依然任重道远。第二,相比于租房,保障房对新生代农民工城市居留意愿具有显著正向影响,在加入其他解释变量后,结论保持一致。考虑到模型中潜在的选择性偏误,运用倾向得分匹配法构建反事实框架加以纠正,并通过逆向概率加权法、逆向概率加权回归调整法、调整变量衡量方式等进行稳健性检验,结论依然成立。第三,保障房对新生代农民工城市居留意愿的影响存在代际差异,相比于90后农民工,保障房对80后农民工的影响更明显。由此,提出要发挥保障房在农民工市民化进程中的作用,应当突出保障房建设的多样性与差异化、优先考虑就业居住超五年和80后农民工等方面实施更有利于新生代农民工的住房制度改革举措。

中国城市住房市场中存在明显的分割,"城中村"等居住环境恶劣的"非正式"住房容纳了大量农民工。通过构建一个农民工住房与经济增长的理论模型,本文发现,针对农民工的单纯住房数量的供给在低端产业占主导时对经济增长的推动作用明显,但在高技能产业比重逐渐增加时其效果逐渐衰减。相反地,改善农民工居住环境的政策能够使住房供给对经济增长的推动力具有可持续性。同时,这类改良政策能够减少潜在的社会冲突所导致的社会资源非生产性损耗,使得分给城市原有居民的"蛋糕"份额也会变大,因此有希望成为一个可以自发实现的内生政策变迁过程,既有利于促进经济增长,又有利于实现城乡融合和社会和谐。

在市场、再分配对住房的干预之前，基于人均住房面积的我国住房分层主要在非青年与青年之间展开；在干预之后，则主要在本地外来、非青年与青年之间依次展开。最终形成了一个本地非青年(上)、本地青年和外地非青年(中)、外地青年(下)的分类结构，最大面积差距达十平方米左右。其主要引致因素是再分配而非市场。福利分房、保障房和规划安置房等价格显著低于市场的住房再分配形式扮演了推动群体内均等化、群体间不平等的双重角色，强化了户籍之间以及代际的住房分层。

利用CFPS 2012—2018年四次微观家庭调查数据，从住房资产和购房负担两个维度，检验了住房影响家庭多孩生育的财富效应和挤出效应。研究发现：（1）家庭住房资产及投资性房产对其多孩生育几率具有显著的正向财富效应。家庭总房产净值增加1%，则多孩生育几率显著提高6.5%；拥有两套及以上住房的家庭相较于单套房家庭，其多孩生育几率提高了24%。（2）购房负担对于无房家庭的多孩生育几率具有显著的负向挤出效应，房价收入比提高1%，多孩生育几率将下降16.8%。（3）“全面二孩”政策的实施，并未从总体上改变住房与多孩生育之间的关系。（4）对于妻子上过大学的群组、多孩生育率较低的区域，住房资产并不是影响家庭多孩生育的关键因素。研究结论为制定更具包容性的生育政策以及更有针对性的住房保障政策提供了有价值的参考。

This paper explores the demand side of hukou (household registration) acquisition in China by estimating the market valuation of urban hukou. According to the provisions in Jinan City's "Acquiring Hukou by Purchasing Houses" policy, this paper uses houses slightly larger than the minimum required floor area as the treatment group, and houses slightly smaller than the minimum required floor area as the control group to perform regression discontinuity design. Empirical results show that residents' willingness to pay for urban hukou in Jinan City was between approximately 90,000 and 126,000 yuan (RMB) in 2017. Our finding is robust to both parametric and nonparametric estimates and different model specifications. We also perform falsification tests by assuming a false policy introduction date and placebo tests based on rental data. Our analysis also offers insights for reform of the hukou system and designs for the provision of public services or welfare.

The Moving to Opportunity (MTO) experiment offered randomly selected families living in highpoverty housing projects housing vouchers to move to lower-poverty neighborhoods. We present new evidence on the impacts of MTO on children's long-term outcomes using administrative data from tax returns. We find that moving to a lower-poverty neighborhood significantly improves college attendance rates and earnings for children who were young (below age 13) when their families moved. These children also live in better neighborhoods themselves as adults and are less likely to become single parents. The treatment effects are substantial: children whose families take up an experimental voucher to move to a lower-poverty area when they are less than 13 years old have an annual income that is $3,477 (31%) higher on average relative to a mean of $11,270 in the control group in their mid-twenties. In contrast, the same moves have, if anything, negative long-term impacts on children who are more than 13 years old when their families move, perhaps because of the disruption effects of moving to a very different environment. The gains from moving fall with the age when children move, consistent with recent evidence that the duration of exposure to a better environment during childhood is a key determinant of an individual's long-term outcomes. The findings imply that offering vouchers to move to lower-poverty neighborhoods to families with young children who are living in high- poverty housing projects may reduce the intergenerational persistence of poverty and ultimately generate positive returns for taxpayers. Raj Chetty Department of Economics Harvard University 1805 Cambridge St. Cambridge, MA 02138 and NBER chetty@fas.harvard.edu Nathaniel Hendren Harvard University Department of Economics Littauer Center Room 235 Cambridge, MA 02138 and NBER nhendren@gmail.com Lawrence F. Katz Department of Economics Harvard University Cambridge, MA 02138 and NBER lkatz@harvard.edu

In the last few years, the mortgage foreclosure crisis has uprooted millions of households and destabilized myriad communities around the country. News stories have reported growing concerns about the effects of these foreclosed homes on surrounding communities and on crime in particular.1 But we have little hard evidence that foreclosures actually lead to increased criminal activity. This paper aims to fill this gap by examining whether and how elevated rates of foreclosure affect different types of crime in the immediately surrounding area, using a unique dataset of point-specific, longitudinal crime and foreclosure data from New York City. Foreclosures might affect crime in several different ways. First, foreclosures may lead to physical deterioration of buildings and grounds, which might signal a degree of complacency among neighborhood residents about social disorder and crime. Second, foreclosures may increase residential turnover and social disengagement, which may in turn weaken the informal social controls in a neighborhood that prevent crime. Finally, foreclosures may lead to prolonged vacancies, which change the costs of and payoff from building theft and vandalism, provide a safe haven for criminal activity, and signal that there are fewer eyes on the street to monitor criminal activity. Although our analyses do not distinguish precisely between these different mechanisms, our detailed data will allow us to better understand whether and how foreclosures affect crime. Previous studies of the relationship between foreclosures and crime have been plagued by endogeneity, with researchers unable to determine if elevated foreclosures actually lead to higher crime rates or whether both are driven by underlying neighborhood decline. Our point-specific, longitudinal data and research design enable us to sort out the causal relationships more effectively and shed light on possible mechanisms. 1 Mummolo and Brubaker, 2008 1

This paper examines the effect of rental housing development subsidized by the federal government’s Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) program on local crime. Under the LIHTC program, certain high-poverty census tracts receive Qualified Census Tract (QCT) status, which affects the size of the tax credits developers receive for building low-income housing. Changes in federal rules determining QCT status generate quasi-experimental variation in the location of LIHTC projects. Exploiting this variation, we find that low-income housing development in the poorest neighborhoods brings with it significant reductions in violent crime that are measurable at the county level. There are no detectable effects on property crime.

Quantitative and qualitative methods are employed to investigate the extent to which proximity to 14 supportive housing facilities opening in Denver from 1992 to 1995 affects crime rates. The econometric specification provides pre- and post- controls for selection bias as well as a spatial autocorrelation correction. Focus groups with homeowners living near supportive housing provide richer context for interpreting the econometric results. The findings suggest that developers paying close attention to facility scale and siting can avoid negative neighborhood impacts and render their supportive housing invisible to neighbors. Implications for structuring local regulations and public education regarding supportive housing facilities follow.

This study focuses on explaining variations in real constant-quality house prices in jurisdictions located in multiple MSAs. Using a hedonic house price framework, we test competing theories of house price determination. Using two variants of the random coefficients model, we find that public school quality has a very large impact on real constant-quality house prices. Our results suggest that capitalization of school quality differences occurs on a per lot basis rather than per square foot of land. Also important to the explanation of variations in house prices are variables derived from urban theory, such as distance to the CBD, and from the amenity literature, such as a community's crime rate, arts, and recreational opportunities. CLASSIFICATION NUMBERS: R21, I29, H22 2

There has been a substantial shift from public housing to voucher-based housing assistance over the past decade, largely in response to the rising cost of public housing and the high rates of crime, unemployment and school failure among public housing residents. Despite this shift, there is relatively little evidence on the impact of public housing or housing vouchers on educational outcomes. This paper utilizes a plausibly exogenous source of variation in housing assistance generated by public housing demolitions in Chicago to examine the impact of high-rise public housing on student outcomes. I find that children in households affected by the demolitions do no better or worse than their peers on a wide variety of achievement measures. Because the majority of households that leave public housing in response to the demolitions move to neighborhoods and schools that closely resemble those they left, the zero effect of the demolitions may be interpreted as the independent impact of public housing. These findings suggest that eliminating high-rise public housing will not necessarily lead to the benefits documented in housing mobility experiments such as Gautreaux or Moving to Opportunity Brian A. Jacob John F. Kennedy School of Government 79 JFK Street Cambridge, MA 02138 and NBER brian_jacob@harvard.edu

This paper examines the short-run impacts of a change in residential neighborhood on the well-being of low-income families, using evidence from the Moving To Opportunity (MTO) program in which eligibility for a housing voucher was determined by random lottery. Applicants in high poverty public housing projects were assigned by lottery to one of three groups: Experimental offered mobility counseling and a voucher valid only in a low-poverty Census tract; Section 8 Comparison offered a geographically unrestricted voucher; or Control offered no new assistance, but continued eligibility for public housing. Our quantitative analyses of program impacts at the Boston site of MTO uses data on 540 families approximately two years after program enrollment. 48 percent of the Experimental group and 62 percent of the Section 8 Comparison group moved through the MTO program. Households in both treatment groups experienced improvements in multiple measures of well-being relative to the Control group including increased safety, improved health among household heads, and fewer behavior problems among boys. There were no significant short-run impacts of either MTO treatment on employment, earnings, or welfare receipt. Experimental group children were less likely to be personally victimized by crime, to be injured, or to experience an asthma attack.

We study how information on local (dis)amenities is transmitted and manifested in housing markets. Using nationwide data on multifamily homes in South Korea, we analyze heterogeneity in the effect of a sex offender’s presence on sale prices and rents of nearby homes. Our results demonstrate that the price effect of the offender’s move-in varies significantly by spatial context. People react more strongly and persistently to the move-in of the offender in places wherein indicators of social connectedness are stronger, such as places with relatively low population density. We also find that, unlike housing prices, rents do not change in response to the move-in of a sex offender. These heterogeneous housing market responses may be attributed to better acquisition of and higher sensitivity to information on local (dis)amenities among (potential) members in highly connected communities, particularly among homeowners. We interpret our findings as suggestive evidence that social capital and social networks are important sources of information on local (dis)amenities.

The Moving to Opportunity (MTO) demonstration assigned housing vouchers via random lottery to public housing residents in five cities. We use the exogenous variation in residential locations generated by MTO to estimate neighborhood effects on youth crime and delinquency. The offer to relocate to lower-poverty areas reduces arrests among female youth for violent and property crimes, relative to a control group. For males the offer to relocate reduces arrests for violent crime, at least in the short run, but increases problem behaviors and property crime arrests. The gender difference in treatment effects seems to reflect differences in how male and female youths from disadvantaged backgrounds adapt and respond to similar new neighborhood environments. Jeffrey R. Kling Department of Economics and Woodrow Wilson School Princeton University Princeton, NJ 08544 and NBER kling@princeton.edu Jens Ludwig Public Policy Institute Georgetown University Washington, DC 20007 ludwigj@georgetown.edu Lawrence F. Katz Department of Economics Harvard University Cambridge, MA 02138 and NBER lkatz@harvard.edu

Subsidized housing controversies frequently involve the fear of crime, a connection that is not well understood in policy and planning. This article thus critically reviews the literature on subsidized housing and crime. Three key findings emerge. First, subsidized households have too frequently lived in violent housing developments and neighborhoods. Second, the spillover effects on crime in surrounding neighborhoods are typically very small. Finally, although the precise mechanisms through which subsidized housing may affect crime are less clear, it is most likely that concentrated disadvantage plays the biggest role when effects are observed, rather than the physical attributes of subsidized housing.

A quality promotion of neighborhood primary schools no doubt elevates nearby housing price. But which houses benefit from the public policy is important to improve educational equity. Accurate identification of such capitalization effects will help policymakers optimize the allocation of scarce public goods. Previous studies on this issue have been biased due to endogeneity and overlooking the impacts of facility quality change. Based on the Hangzhou’s school district adjustment in 2012, the current work contributes to housing price effects of policies and education quality changes, rather than a static educational facility. The difference-in-differences model with quantile regression is constructed to obtain a more precise and detailed estimation among the different sub-markets. Results show that the average price effect estimated by the difference-in-differences is up to nearly 800 yuan/m2, higher than cross-sectional estimation. Only housing with better schools after reassignment witness a price premium. Low-priced and small houses earn more than 1000 yuan/m2, whereas high-priced and large houses are not significantly affected. The results demonstrate that future policies should ensure the rights of lowincome groups to attend high quality primary school and guard against the gentrification of lowpriced houses.

This paper evaluates the potential for negative externalities from public housing by examining crime rates before and after demolition of public housing projects in Chicago between 1995 and 2010. Using data on blocklevel crimes by type of crime merged to detailed geographic data on individual public housing demolitions, I find evidence that Chicago's public housing imposed significant externalities on the surrounding neighborhood. Using a difference in difference approach comparing neighborhoods around public housing projects to nearby neighborhoods I find that crime decreases by 8.8% after a demolition. This decrease is concentrated in violent crime. I use an event study to show that the decrease occurs at the approximate date of the eviction of the residents and persists for at least 5 years after the demolition. Neighborhoods with large demolitions and demolitions of public housing that had been poorly maintained display the largest crime decreases.

This paper studies an Education Fee Reduction and Exemption Program for preschool childcare in Jinan, China, to explore the benefit incidence among different stakeholders by observing how housing prices and rents change in response to this program and by employing a method of difference-in-differences combined with boundary discontinuity. The empirical findings indicate that the housing prices in the experimental area rose by 5–7 percent while the rents rose by 10–13 percent due to the capitalization effects of this equalization program. Falsification tests are conducted using artificial boundaries and fake policy implementation dates. A back-of-theenvelope welfare analysis demonstrates that a considerable portion of the program’s benefits is offset by house price increases for new home buyers and rent increases for tenants, with significant distributional implications for different stakeholders.

While planners and policymakers have advocated the need for project-based subsidized housing, they often face the challenge of strong community opposition due to the negative perceptions of subsidized housing and subsidized households, and the fear that these developments and residents would bring increased crime. This paper aims to extend beyond anecdotal evidence by examining the impact of a popular U.S. affordable housing program, the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) program, on neighborhood crime rates. We estimate the levels and trends in neighborhood crime before and after LIHTC developments, based on crime incidents data from 2000 to 2009 in Austin, Texas, using the Adjusted Interrupted Time SerieseDifference in Differences (AITSeDID) approach to clarify the causal direction of impacts of LIHTC developments. Results show that LIHTC subsidized housing tended to be developed in neighborhoods where crime was already prevalent, and contrary to popular perception, LIHTC developments have a mitigating impact on neighborhood crime. These results suggest that LIHTC developments may be an effective tool for revitalizing distressed neighborhoods by ameliorating the “broken windows” problem and reducing neighborhood crime.

We investigate heterogeneous and nonlinear intergenerational transmission of education and the impact on this of house prices. Using the China Household Finance Survey, we construct household history of property purchases and educational investment over the past 16 years with current filial educational achievement. High house prices tighten the household’s credit constraints, resulting in the concave slopes of filial education as a function of father’s education. On average one standard deviation in father’s (mother’s) education accounts for 0.375 (0.098) standard deviations of filial education. Decomposition reveals the “glass ceiling” and the “glass floor” in two tails of education distribution.

人口流动与犯罪的关系是城市化和社会管理中需要回答的基础问题,也是一个广受热议但仍存争议的公共议题。本文通过汇集和分析2010年中国地级以上306市(地州盟)检察机关数据,结合对5个省(自治区)9位公安、检察人员的访谈,发现人口流动程度与起诉率显著相关,但租住率却是批捕率的更好预测指标。由于人口流动与租住率的相关性,这可能意味着人口流动促进了高犯罪,但很大程度上是通过居住状态等因素起作用。人口流动与全部犯罪关联度高,但居住状态作为空间结构性力量,与较严重犯罪关联更紧密。本研究的启示在于,在城市问题日益重要的今天,我们应反思中国城市化进程及其意外后果,重新审视住房政策的社会政策属性,重视居住的安全防控功能和空间融合效应。

中国城市居民只有在学区中买房(而非租房)才能享有学区内小学的入学权。本文借助"租买不同权"的入学制度,以及学区房与相邻非学区房的配对回归,更好地处理特征价格模型中的遗漏变量,精确测度优质教育资源的隐含价格。结果表明,2011年北京重点小学学区房的溢价约为8.1%。将基础教育资源与住房租买形式挂钩的制度安排,是中国城市居民过度偏好住房自有的重要原因之一,会扭曲居民住房选择和资源配置,造成优势区位房价过高。

公共经济学理论指出,在地方政府主导的教育投资模式下,教育服务质量的高低将部分的反映在房价上。"就近入学"政策激励家庭通过买房而择校,这意味着基于居住地分配的入学机会在事实上按照家庭社会经济地位分配。本文利用北京市两个城区的小学资源分布和楼盘价格数据,基于特征价格模型,研究了学校质量和房价的关系。研究发现,楼盘周边拥有较好或极好口碑的小学与对口楼盘的价格具有显著的正相关关系。在此基础上,本文反思了"就近入学"政策对教育机会公平分配以及教育均衡发展的影响。

21世纪以来,房价的快速上涨推动了经济的发展,但同时也带来了一系列社会问题。本文利用2002—2016年中国242个地级及以上城市的面板数据实证考察了房价与犯罪率的关系,并对其影响机制进行分析。研究发现:第一,房价上涨对城市犯罪率水平有显著的正向影响,1%的房价上涨将导致本城市刑事犯罪批捕率与起诉率分别上涨0.16%和0.099%,在使用工具变量后影响效果仍然存在且有所提升。第二,房价对犯罪率的影响存在显著的地区和时间异质性,在房价水平更高的东部和中部地区以及2008年以后,房价对犯罪率的影响更大;第三,房价上涨会显著加剧本地居民家庭的财富不平等,从而导致犯罪率水平的提升。第四,保障性住房政策的实施有助于降低房价上涨对城市犯罪率的刺激作用。本文研究结论对于全面理解房价上涨的社会影响以及相关住房市场政策的制定和评估具有重要意义。

家庭子女数量锐减与残酷的升学淘汰机制导致城市基础教育陷入排位赛的内卷化竞争。基础教育难度低、知识更新慢、人才区分度不高,其教育分层更多依赖家庭社会经济地位通过"择校"完成,而非学生智识水平及学业成长潜力。民众和市场基于理性选择对教育资源调控政策做出"制度再适应",如果"物以类聚人以群分"的集体行动逻辑不发生质变,用教学硬件条件均等化、师资轮岗流动、"公民同招"等措施来保障教育公平的努力很难实现政策的初衷。着力改变城市家庭"育独苗"的反常家庭形态,大幅提升生育水平才是缓解教育内卷化的治本之策之一。

本文利用CFPS2010数据考察了住房价值对城镇家庭教育开支的作用。通过使用工具变量法我们发现,住房财富的增加不仅会显著缓解家庭的信贷约束,增加家庭教育开支,并且其效果要远大于非住房财富所产生的影响。借助"半线性回归",我们还发现在控制其他影响因素后,住房财富和家庭教育开支之间呈现出一种S型的关系,即只有当住房价值处于中间区间时,才会显著影响家庭教育开支,而位于较高和较低两个区间的住房价值都不会对家庭教育开支产生显著影响。

本文首次利用家庭微观调查数据,对我国近10年居民房地产财富与消费之间的关系进行研究。家庭微观数据的使用,不仅克服了以往研究中采用房地产宏观数据样本量不足的局限性,还可以对家庭个体行为进行有效检验。得到的主要结论为:房地产财富对居民消费有显著的促进作用;房价上涨并没有使我国房地产财富效应增强,反而有所减弱;住房来源于"自己的"家庭的财富效应高于住房来源于"单位的"和"国家的"家庭;房地产财富效应在自有产权住房与租私人住房的家庭之间没有差异;户主越年青的家庭,房地产财富效应越大;收入越高的家庭房地产财富效应越大;经济越发达地区房地产财富效应越大。